The return of drought in Australia is stretching prospects for wheat between feast and famine and triggering a crisis for winter canola farmers.
With a renewed drought extending into the planting season for Australia's premier winter wheat crop, industry leaders see record high production or water-starved low tonnage's as equally likely.
Winter canola, planted earlier than wheat, is already in trouble. Speculative canola planting in Australia's south-east is taking place amid swirling dust as farmers gamble that rain will fall to save an otherwise-doomed crop.
The Canola Association of Australia this week cancelled its first scheduled forecast of the new crop because of uncertainty. "There's no point at the moment because virtually no one's had rain," said association president Trent Potter.
"People from now on will probably be dropping out from growing canola. Our forecast could change within a week." An unpublished canola forecast by the association based on an rain break that did not occur was for around 1.8 million tonnes this season, up from 1.6 million.
"(But) no areas in southern NSW have had moisture to plant on. Any planting would be irrigation or speculative dry planting.
Canola planting is also underway in northern New South Wales, where rain has fallen. But many areas in the west of the state have run out of planting time and few areas could plant into June, he said.
Views on wheat's prospects are sharply split. Private group Australian Wheat Forecasters this week held firms to only slightly shave its forecast of a record wheat crop of 27.2 million tonnes for the year to March 31.
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