LSM troubles deepen

Large Scale Manufacturing is down 3.7 percent for 1HFY23. For December it is down 3.5 percent – which marks the sixth consecutive month of negative growth. When did this last happen? Never in the last 13 years at least. Not even in and around peak Covid outburst. The trend is setting across sectors, with more and more groups entering the negative zone every month.

Of the 22 broad sectors tracked by the PBS for LSM computation, 18 now show negative growth for 1HFY23. Of the four in the green zone, three are the new entrants which made their way into LSM after the recent rebasing exercise. Wearing apparel, furniture, and football – the monthly export quantities of which are used as proxies (and not the actual local production) -remain positive – with a combined weight of around 8 percent.

Readymade garment export quantities have a 6 percent weight in LSM, and January 2023 numbers show the growth is also slowing down – now down to 44 percent. That said, it is still a very healthy growth given everything else around it seems to be falling apart. Thankfully, the PBS takes the correct numbers for wearing apparel quantities for LSM tabulation. That is because the export data released by the PBS for the past three months erroneously shows cumulative exports inflated by at 22 percent. Here is hoping the PBS officials take a look at what is going on with readymade export quantities as they do not add up from monthly and cumulative sheets.

Furniture export quantity growth has come to earth in January 2023 – and will be reflected in upcoming LSM – down from over 100 percent for 1HFY23 to 12 percent for 7MFY23. This was bound to happen given the minuscule share in overall exports – and quantities in single digits leading to triple digit growths.

For everything else, red is the color. And from how things are shaping up – it promises to be mostly red for quite some time. The recent mini budget measures will ensure there is a further dent on beverages, tobacco and cement industries – all of which are already down in double digits. Interest rates are soon going to go high – and that should ensure another long dry spell for the likes of electronics, automobiles, chemicals, and even textiles.

The bottom is not here yet. Negative 3.7 percent would look a mini victory a few months from now.