When the PTI came into power last year, both the business community and the citizens at large could be categorised in two: one who expected things to change overnight, and the other who opined that the system is so rogue that even if the party is genuine in its efforts, the system won’t let them win. More than six months on, and ahead of their first proper federal budget, the same question is being asked by locals and expatriates alike: Whether the party can deliver or not? At the risk of pointing the obvious the reality as is the case often, is nuanced.
First off, overnight reform is extremely difficult; in many cases the underlying basis of reforms does not even exist. This basis includes but is not limited to an enabling political arrangement, solid research-backed evidence, and a well-functioning bureaucracy. The country at the moment lacks all three.
Following the 18th amendment and the 7th NFC, the responsibilities of public service delivery now rests with the provinces; the tax base too (GST goods vs services) are also split between provinces and the centre. And the irony is that political and administrative arrangements for smooth coordination in these affairs do not exist. The setting up of these arrangements is not something that can be done overnight. The PTI’s excessive focus on corruption and little focus on these arrangements – think the strengthening of the CCI and interprovincial coordination ministry – isn’t helping. But if they set these up tonight, the results won’t emerge at least until nine months later after setting up of various secretaries and their staffing.
Meanwhile, research-backed evidence is also missing. At the one end, the state’s statistical bodies at federal and provincial level remain poor while at the other end the public sector enterprises – one of the key reform areas – reportedly don’t even have well managed accounts. Meanwhile, reliable estimates of tax gaps also don’t exist across sectors – and tax by the way is the most fundamental area of reforms.
Similar is the case of bureaucracy – reforming which appears to be an item that seems to have fallen out of PTI’s agenda. The honourable economist and former central bank governor Ishrat Hussain had already worked on civil service reforms, writing a huge report during General Musharraf era.
Later during the 2013-2018 PML-N era, he had once again chaired a Planning Commission’s committee on civil service reforms. The draft of that report was prepared; albeit the top bureaucracy back then had poked holes in it and formed a review committee aka delay tactics. With two reports on civil service reform plan already existing, one wonders why the PTI is going ahead with it. Will the new reform plan be substantially different from the one produced during Musharraf and Nawaz era? Civil service reforms take time to bear fruit, which means best to roll it out in year one rather than year five.
Perhaps and this is where the second reality makes itself present. The PTI is new to power; slogans are one thing and the reality of governance is another animal altogether. To bring any reform, the party needs support of civil service, and yet the civil service – the tribes of DMG and the lot – does not want to shoot themselves in the foot by allowing the kind of civil service reforms that have been planned. It’s clearly not a walk in the park.
For instance, in the case of FBR reforms. Sources close to the party and sources in the tax circles say that there is no single senior tax man or woman of professional repute who can take up the position of chairman FBR. Yet if the party brings an professional from the outside – be it from elsewhere in the civil service or some technocrat who has had tax reform advisory experience at multilaterals – there are real fears that the FBR official would eat the man alive; the person would be made a goof of, because he wouldn’t know the system from the inside.
This brings us to the third main aspect: the fact that the party’s leadership doesn’t have things their way rather than simply taking the quickest available option. Mr. Khan’s leadership style has been my-way-or-the-highway, a mindset that perhaps seems to have seeped into his top team members. Asad Umar had been long been maintaining that he will not go to the IMF, just because it is the easiest way out. Earlier this month, Razak Dawood also made a similar statement at an event in Karachi. He said we are trying to get the revised Pak-China FTA soon, but the asserted twice that if his team at commerce ministry isn’t able to secure all the key items on the wish list from China, then he would rather than sign a poorly drafted FTA in a hurry.
Wholescale Reforms cannot be overnight; reforms as Nadeem ul Haq keeps reminding through his articles and interviews, are a gradual process done on piecemeal basis. That requires strong will, immense patience for trial and error and for U-turns, an enabling political arrangement, solid research-backed evidence, and a well-functioning bureaucracy. Save for an angel working on the commands of the Almighty, no one can bring changes overnight. The PTI now having coming to power is now learning that; it would also do well do communicate the same to the public and garner wider political support that in one way or another will come to hit the very people demanding the reforms.
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