Scenario change in world cotton prices came to ginners rescue who in order to measure buyers' will pushed prices higher during the week ended on April 24, 2004. But it worked only partially as buying support contracted to modest size at intervals, sources said.
The spot rate thrice raised to a total of Rs 2875. On Saturday spot reduced by Rs 25 to Rs 2850.
WORLD SCENARIO: Rising trend sustained in world cotton futures rate attributed to mainly speculative in buying at the peak of May/July rollover.
However, futures on the opening day ended firmer on combined fund and commercial buying with players now looking toward first notice day in the May.
Traders observed that cotton market was behaving as if there will be trading house which will take delivery of the cotton when first notice rolls around April 26.
On Tuesday futures were lower as fund contented themselves with liquidating position in May.
Fundamentally the market is keeping tabs on progress of plantings in US and China. The third days trading turned firmer as speculative funds were buyers during May/July roll over before first notice next week, analysts said more upbeat technical picture compared with the prior session brought the bullish optimism back into the market on Thursday futures handed higher with nearly May touching 4-week peak on speculative buying near the end of May/July rollover.
Switching positions from May cotton into July before May's first-notice day was dominant feature.
A weekly USDA report on export sales had little effect on trading. A USDA export sales report showed shipment from US was at 323,400 RBS combined cotton sales jumped to 393,900 RBS.
On Friday cotton futures was mixed in last ditch rollover. May eased and active July advanced as players adjusted positions in final contract rollover. But concerns in the market about dry weather in the US SE cotton growing areas prompted speculative buying.
Meanwhile cotton is watching progress of plantings in the US and China, whose big buying last year powered prices to their highest level since late 1995.
LOCAL TRADING: The cotton futures in New York poised for a rise prompted ginners in Pakistan to lot their pent-up feeling exposed with a raise of Rs 25 to Rs 2825 on the very first day. Then the prices never looked back though spinners punished sellers by recording from the market at times looking it absolutely deserted.
The Igatex exhibition which concluded the other day had little impact. Or it was not properly propagated to leave it mark. However, the first day reported nil following declaration of spot rate up Rs 25 to Rs 2825. But the ginners said that the trend in cotton will bring back spinners to minimise loss or to regret.
The DMR on Tuesday reported some deals struck on Monday, in price range of Rs 2600 and Rs 2925. The supply of regular deals is still not being met. Spot rate remained unchanged at Rs 2825. Third days business report was not available though two deals reported in DMR at prices Rs 2800.
On Thursday a compromise was tacitly reached, because nearly 3000 bales of cotton changed between Rs 2600 and 3000. All deals were of Sindh, Punjab cotton was held back expecting it to pay back with premium.
The trading report was not passed on Saturday. However, spot rate was considered not feasible and corrected within ours, spot was reduced by Rs 25 to Rs 2850 without ST and upcountry expenses.
The Monday trading will depict how the reduction in price has been received by the hard up spinners.
A PIOUS WISH: A recent report on cotton about new crop was likely to settle the price issue could be well be doubled a pious wish. In Punjab cotton sowing is yet weeks away.
The price could be reasonable if exploitation of opportunity to reap a harvest through shrewd mechanism is avoided by all the players. Strangely the crop estimate remains wide apart with the buyers and sellers - latter always have an eye on production being low while the former through various statement do not tire that crop has been bumper.
The estimate should not be held hostage to serve individuals interest. Unfortunately country and its economy is not much of concern. God, bless, if cotton or any crop is shower of lover is considered as such, then idea of give and take should come to play from what everyone repeats for greater good of the country. Taken today's heart burning of the ginners, over 1400000 bales of cotton pending with the ginners are burden some, while high prices are which are hit hard on claim that exports will suffer and many people would lose jobs. If ginners search their heart as so the spinners why both consider themselves at the receiving end.
The ginners immediately raise the prices whether other market demands so or not. Similarly, if cotton prices depict bullish fervour, spinners sit on sideline without lifting a bale and even threaten to import cotton.
So the problem with major players in cotton and its product is self-interest premise of which they deliberately hold fast. Why can't they look beyond their nose, knowledgeable circles summing up the matter posed a question.
NIAB'S PERFORMANCE: The Nuclear Institute of Agriculture Biology (NIAB) has done commendable work so far in contributing seeds of various crops more particularly of cotton crop.
The institution is stated to be receptive to the changing pattern of requirement such as pest resistant, more yield giving and making seed worthy of cultivation on salt-affected land. With exception one or two, all breeds have worked well. The Niab set-up about three decades to be by changing their pattern.
The Most effective and useful Niab-78, so called, brought revolution in cotton production. According to the story production was boosted from just four million bales to 12 million bales.
The farmers who are subject to natural vagaries have now increased their income by 31.12 billion.
Another variety is Niab-86 said to be suitable for the cultivation of salt affected soils. According to circles the most dubious variety evolved till today was Niab 26, which brought allegedly tears for the farmer. Circles wonder, why so devastating variety was at all suggested for the use. But in one or two season the variety was found susceptible to cotton leaf curl virus (CLCV).
The initial growth is said to have charmed the farmers. They were however shocked to learn at the flowering stage that it charmed the virus also leading to crop devastation.
The Niab and like institutions are required in large numbers with conscientious workers. Since more and more land is turning saltish and brackish concentration will be required to evolve.
VARIETIES TO COUNTER THE BRACKISH LAND:
TAIL PIECE: There appears intractable spots to reach a point of solution. In this regard lack of conviction is so deep that years of exercise fail to reach a decision. We don't have to ponder much for finding glaring example of indecision. Kalabagh dam yes, Kalabagh dam no - The hedge trading in cotton was in vogue in Pakistan.
There probably no complaint about any weakness in the system. It was un-Islamic and therefore rules. Then world renowned religious ulema declared it not un-Islamic if no manipulation is involved. It was today certain that cotton trading in kerb will be run either by KCA or some other organisation.
It is now heard ginners are opposing it tooth and nail - not only that it is un-Islamic but because it is not workable in Pakistan as is working in America and India.
Comments
Comments are closed.