World's dependency on Opec oil to grow: IEA

The world's dependency on Opec oil will grow as non-Opec production is expected to hit a ceiling just after 2010, International Energy Agency (IEA), the West's energy watchdog has forecast.
Opec will be the main contributor to any growth in world oil production, mainly from countries in the Middle East and North Africa, the two regions that the IEA will focus on in its annual World Energy Outlook report, due in November.
"We expect the role of Opec, especially the Middle East and North Africa countries to grow significantly, mainly as a result of increasing oil demand, reserves in the non-Opec areas are poorer than Opec areas, and we have huge and cheap reserves in the key Opec areas," IEA chief economist Fatih Birol told Reuters on Monday.
He named the key Opec countries as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates.
"I do not want be an alarmist on world resources even if we will be more and more dependent on a decreasing number of countries," IEA Executive Director Claude Mandil was quoted as saying in French newspaper Le Monde.
The newspaper earlier reported the IEA saying that output from non-Opec countries like Norway, Mexico, Russia and the United States, which produce about 60 percent of the world's oil supplies, could drop just after 2010.
"Oil production (excluding heavy oils and bitumens) will reach a ceiling just after 2010. The production profile afterward will depend on technology, prices and investments," Birol was quoted as saying in Le Monde.
But he said without sufficient investment and with low prices, there would be a pronounced decline in non-Opec output.
Even with sufficient investments and high prices, production would only stabilise for some time, he added.
In its report in November, the IEA will dedicate chapters to Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Algeria, Libya and Egypt.
The agency will look at domestic oil, gas and power demand of these countries and their expected gas and oil production until 2030, examining the uncertainties and their impact on the global energy markets, Birol said.