Zimbabwe is increasingly likely to become a failed state plagued by unrest and violence if the world community does not act to address its deep political and economic crisis, a think-tank said on Tuesday.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) said Zimbabwe's political tensions had left President Robert Mugabe's government "increasingly desperate and dangerous" with no clear plan for resolving the southern African country's woes.
The Brussels-based group said Zimbabwe's economic freefall, the looming end of Robert Mugabe's presidency, and cracks in the ruling ZANU-PF party and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), could all trigger unrest.
"ZANU-PF's policies, corruption and repressive governance are directly responsible for the severe economic slide, growing public discontent and international isolation," ICG's southern Africa project director Peter Kagwanja said.
"And the international community still lacks any kind of grip on the crisis," he added.
ICG said Western governments should maintain pressure on Mugabe's government through "targeted sanctions directed at the ZANU-PF leaders who are driving Zimbabwe to ruin".
The African Union, it said, should use next month's summit in Gambia to call for urgent action on Zimbabwe to protect regional stability. Critics say Mugabe should accept responsibility for an economic meltdown that has seen Zimbabwe's inflation top 1,000 percent and unemployment soar above 70 percent as residents struggle with shortages of food, fuel and power.
Mugabe insists he is not to blame for Zimbabwe's economic problems, pointing instead at sabotage by his domestic and Western opponents in retaliation for his seizure of white-owned commercial farms for blacks.
"The failure of the international community to reach a concerted position on Zimbabwe has only escalated the suffering being inflicted on the people ... and increased the likelihood of major state failure," the ICG report said.
The ICG said Zimbabwe faced the prospect of greater insecurity and violence in the run-up to 2008 elections when Mugabe's current six-year presidential term ends - with power struggles over who might succeed him engulfing both the ruling party and the opposition.
The ICG said ZANU-PF was increasingly split into factions with one, supporting Vice President Joyce Mujuru, looking to engineer a "transitional presidency" that will allow the party to appoint her as a successor to Mugabe in 2008. But it said Mugabe's own standing within ZANU-PF was under some strain, leaving him turning increasingly to the armed forces for support.
Mugabe, 82, has ruled since independence from Britain in 1980 and denies charges by both the MDC and several Western countries that he has rigged polls to stay in power since 2000.
Last month Zimbabwe police arrested some 70 people including senior opposition politicians campaigning for an election, and deported South Africa's most powerful union boss in line with Mugabe's vow to deal ruthlessly with any dissent.
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