High oil prices and feverish diplomacy have helped achieve a stunning turnaround in Saudi Arabia's political and economic fortunes, but long overdue reforms are limiting this key US ally's new-found clout.
Five years ago, Saudi Arabia's standing as a bellwether ally of the West was in ruins after the September 11 attacks, when 19 suicide hijackers including 15 Saudis flew civilian airliners into targets in US cities, killing about 3,000 people.
After the low prices of the 1990s, the government made the stark declaration to Saudis that the oil boom of the 1970s was over. Some analysts even predicted, as one book title from 1994 said, the "coming fall" of the House of Saud, which rules a vast, unwieldy country put together through war.
"It was all very premature. It was fashionable, but I think it's been effectively disproved," said Alex Munro, former British ambassador in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil exporter and its vast crude supplies are a cornerstone of its strategic alliance with the United States.
Oil prices began to surge in 2003, the year a US-led invasion of Iraq aroused speculation in the Arab world that the eventual US target was the Saudi rulers themselves.
There were suspicions in the United States that, not only did Saudi Arabia's puritanical Wahhabi form of Islam encourage Islamic extremism, but some minor royals had helped fund the al Qaeda militants who attacked New York and Washington.
One US-based dissident said: "The Saudis spent millions of dollars in the US on public relations campaigns in an effort to win over Congress and the American people in general."
A militant campaign launched in 2003 to topple the Saudi rulers ultimately acted to soothe relations. Western security agencies helped the government fight the insurgents amid fears of anti-Western alternatives to Saudi rule. "Saudi Arabia has regained its position as one of the leading states," said London-based Saudi analyst Mai Yamani.
Saudi Arabia's economic transformation has been striking. Figures from the Samba Financial Group show the economy growing to a conservative $350 billion in 2006, nearly four times estimations for Egypt, the most populous Arab country with more than 70 million people to Saudi Arabia's 24 million. In 1998, when King Abdullah as crown prince first said Saudi Arabia would have to tighten its belt, the gross domestic product was $146 billion. Per capita income, which stood at $13,947 in 2005, was $7,437.
"It's been a huge turnaround, that no one thought was going to be remotely possible," said Nawaf Obaid, who runs the state-run Saudi National Security Assessment Project.
"This year, in any terms, will be the highest revenue that Saudi Arabia has ever had," Obaid said, adding that foreign assets doubled to $172.9 billion in the 24 months to April 2006. Saudi Arabia accounts for 34 percent of the GDP of the whole Arab world, although it has only about 8 percent of its population.
That sort of economic power brings with it political clout that Saudi Arabia -- which has long relied on US power to protect itself -- is willing to wield only with kid gloves.
Saudi analysts say Saudi Arabia fears Iran acquiring nuclear weapons because that will create Arab popular pressure for the Saudis to follow suit, challenging the ingrained habit of a US-friendly, quietist foreign policy in the Middle East.
A government adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the government was as yet unwilling to offer major backing to Sunni Muslim groups in Iraq to challenge Shi'ite and Iranian influence that Saudi officials had publicly denounced.
"Sunni tribes are knocking at our door asking for help. See the retinue of foreign leaders coming to Riyadh. But are they (Saudi rulers) ready to assume the leadership role?" he said.
Saudi Arabia, which houses Islam's holiest shrines, has long been the bane of opposition groups in Arab countries, who say it should use its political and economic influence to press Washington to ease its backing for Israel in the decades-old conflict with Palestinians.
Since the oil boom began, the main development in Saudi foreign policy has been a relatively innocuous shift of interest towards East Asia, scene of several high-profile trade visits.
However, analysts say Saudi Arabia's archaic system of government -- an absolute monarchy with undisclosed budgets and competing princes -- critically saps political and economic potential.
"No basic reforms of the obsolete government system or attempts to stop the royal family's wasteful ways are being contemplated," Said Aburish wrote in a recent reprint of his "The Rise, Corruption and Coming Fall of the House of Saud".
Government plans to diversify the economy are hampered by poor international flight connections and a lumbering national airline that businessmen wait to see privatised as promised.
The authorities have identified unemployment as a serious problem among Saudi youth, despite the presence of more than 6 million foreign workers. The work ethic is still lacking in a traditional society that has rapidly embraced modernity.
"This boom is problematic. It is based on the sale of a commodity in high demand, not on restructuring of the Saudi economy to generate employment among an unemployable young population," said London-based anthropologist Madawi Rasheed.
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