Nato is having second thoughts about opening the door to membership for Ukraine, Georgia and three Balkan states at a summit slated for early 2008, alliance diplomats said on Monday.
They cited a raft of concerns, including doubts over Nato's ability to digest new members after 2004's expansion, the alliance's unpopularity in some aspiring states and the failure of several entry hopefuls to implant democratic reforms.
Even Washington, an advocate of Ukrainian and Georgian aspirations, has struck a more cautious tone of late, with one senior US official noting the positive mood within Nato towards Ukraine's drive had "dissipated" in recent months.
"There is a general decrease in enthusiasm in Nato for enlargement," said one senior alliance diplomat of a trend that mirrors the cooling over the past year in the European Union to taking in new members from the east.
After Nato took in seven ex-communist states in 2004, the United States called last year for an "enlargement summit" in early 2008 to pave the way for more entrants.
While no one in the alliance is so far ruling out that Nato leaders will use the meeting to welcome in at least one of the five countries waiting in line, there is growing talk in the alliance that 2008 may be too early.
The euphoria of the 2004 pro-Western "Orange Revolution" long gone, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko still has no government three months after March polls and has struggled to react to small but noisy anti-Nato protests in the Crimea peninsula this month sparked by US preparations for war games.
"The positive atmosphere at Nato (towards Ukraine)... has dissipated in the face of several factors," US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs David Kramer told a conference in Washington in June.
Kramer cited Ukrainian polls showing support for Nato at barely 18-20 percent, the Crimea protests, infighting within the "Orange" democratic camp and lagging economic reforms.
Nato diplomats said it was increasingly likely Kiev would have to wait until a Nato summit in Latvia this November before being granted a "membership action plan", making entry in early 2008 - or merely an invitation then - an uphill task.
Georgia's case is more complex, raising the question of whether Nato's borders should extend to the south Caucasus.
"Georgia is European in civilisation terms. But is it European in strategic terms?" said one envoy. Tbilisi's disputes with Moscow over two rebel regions backed by Russia are a further obstacle and were one reason why Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli did not formally meet alliance ambassadors during a visit to Nato last month, envoys said.
"There was no point - we had nothing to offer him," said one, adding that Nogaideli had wanted assurances from Nato that preliminary talks on closer ties would be accelerated. Question marks are also growing over Croatia, Macedonia and Albania - three eastern states left out of the 2004 expansion. Persistent corruption in Albania, violence in Macedonia ahead of Wednesday's elections and the slow pace of reform in Croatia are compounding doubts over their readiness.
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