Soya lower

Soyabean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed lower on Friday as the value of the dollar gained, while crude oil and wheat futures tumbled, traders said. CBOT soya closed unchanged to 6 cents per bushel lower, with January down 6 at $6.56 per bushel.
Trading was volatile and eventually a firming dollar and falling wheat market lent sufficient pressure to drive soyabean futures to a lower close. "You've got a big reversal in the dollar and that took some of the steam out of the commodity markets.
The commodity markets have been supported by the weak dollar over the last week to 10 days," said Roy Huckabay, analyst for The Linn Group. Soya found support early in the day from firm oil markets, especially Malaysian palm oil, traders and analysts said.
"The rise in palm oil markets overnight led us to believe that oil should lead the complex higher," said Dale Gustafson, analyst for Citicorp. Gustafson said he took note of news from Sabri Ahmad, chief of the Malaysian Palm Oil Association that Malaysian palm oil prices have upside potential to reach 2,200 ringgit per tonne in the first half of 2007.
"Palm is up and there could be another rise from January through March," Gustafson said. Malaysian palm ended firm overnight on Thursday with benchmark February contract on the Bursar Malaysia Derivatives exchange up 15 ringgit at 1,865 ringgit ($526.80) per tonne.
Firm outside markets in the day such as gold and crude oil also gave soya and soyaoil futures a bit of a lift in initial trading since soyaoil is gaining traction as a player in the growing biofuels sector. However, the gold market began falling later in the trading session when the dollar's value gained steam.
Good South American crops weather and plentiful stocks of soya continue to act as an anchor on the market, traders and analysts have said. Some trade sources said hot weather in portions of Argentina was beginning to cause some concern about possible stress to some of that region's soya crop.
Meteorlogix weather on Friday said drier weather is expected over the next five days in Argentina but good soil moisture reserves should boost crop growth. Drier and warmer weather is expected over the next 5-7 days in Brazil's Rio Grande du Sol but so far, there are no serious weather problems in the South American soya regions.
Soya in South America is in its critical growing season, making weather there an increasingly important market factor. Positioning was noted ahead of the release on Monday of USA's supply/demand report. An average of analysts' estimates pegged 2006/07 US soya ending stocks at 568 million bushels, up from the USDA forecast in November for 565 million.
Cash basis bids in the Midwest on Friday were steady amid slow farmer selling. Soyameal closed $2.40 per ton lower to 30 cents higher, with December down $1.60 at $185.40 per ton. Deliveries on the December contract totalled 981 lots amid scattered stopping. Traders said J.P. Morgan was a noted buyer of 1,500 December, which was a possible commercial purchase.
Soyaoil was unchanged to 0.13 cent per lb lower, with December down 0.06 at 28.28 cents per lb. Slipcover pressure from sagging soya and a downturn in crude oil markets weighed on soyaoil futures. Support stemmed from a firm close overnight in Malaysian palm oil futures. Traders said J.P. Morgan was a featured buyer of 1,500 December soyaoil. Deliveries on the December contract totalled 556 lots amid scattered stopping.