China trims soya estimate

An official China think-tank has cut its 2007 soya crop forecast by 9.8 percent to 14.4 million tonnes, citing drought conditions, but the corn crop is still forecast to rise by 2 percent due to greater planted acreage.
The China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) revised downwards the country's 2007 soya crop estimate from a 14.8 million tonne estimate it issued last month and from estimates of 15.0 million tonnes in the summer.
CNGOIC left the 2007 corn crop estimate unchanged at 149 million tonnes, up 2.4 percent from last year, reflecting higher corn prices that prompted farmers to switch away from soya.
"Drought in Heilongjiang, Jillian and Inner Mongolia will push yields down by 8 percent to 15 percent compared with last year, but in both Jillian and Heilongjiang acreage planted with corn rose by 17 percent, offsetting the lower yields," said the centre. A drop in the domestic soya harvest and China's growing dependence on imported soyabeans has led soya growers to call for more incentives for planting soya and subsidies for research on better-yielding varieties, in line with programs offered for grains that have helped lift harvests in recent years.
Maintaining China's grains harvest at a level adequate for its consumption is of much higher political importance for China than the soya crop. Multinational firms and their joint ventures already largely dominate China's soya crushing industry.
The soya harvest in Heilongjiang could fall by 1.1 million tonnes or 18.5 percent this year, CNGOIC said, and the harvest in Inner Mongolia could drop by 100,000 tonnes, or 9.1 percent.