Mining in the past

“The future belongs to cobalt” says Elon Musk, whose brainchild Tesla Inc, is valued at USD 50 billion, rivaling that of GM and Ford despite a production output less than that of Pak Suzuki. So why the visionary carmaker is obsessing over a rare metal most commonly found in meteorites? Turns out cobalt are extremely critical to the lithium-ion batteries which form the core of the hybrid and electric car industry.

During 2016-18, global cobalt prices increased from USD 20,000 per metric ton to over USD 90,000MT; before settling at a little under USD 60,000MT. This is certainly a commodity boom driven by real demand in underlying factors market that would make most traders drool. Even if its part speculation, traders have not seen such growth spurt in asset prices since the birth of crypto-currency.

Traditional miners see cobalt boom with suspicion, after all, many commodities have had their moment in the sun ever since the Tulip mania of 17th century, and withered away as sanity returned to the markets. However, if one were to pay heed to news reports coming out of the African continent, the demand for cobalt is real enough to raise the specter of tribal conflict in DRC Congo. Rival militias use terror tactics to capture mining regions where slave labour is employed, reviving horrors of blood diamonds from the 90s.

The reality is that mineral mining business has always been fraught with controversy, especially in the developing world. Consider the gold and copper mines of Reko Diq, whose ownership became subject of much criticism ever since their first discovery. The mines are in the news again, as the peddlers of Medina model pivot us back towards the custodians of Kaaba.

If geological literature, including a US government-led survey is to be believed, the western Balochistan region, particularly Chagai district, is part of an arc extending all the way from Afghan province of Ghazni. This region is said to be rich in many precious minerals and rare earth metals besides gold and copper, specifically iron, lithium, and you guessed it, cobalt!

To put things into perspective, recall that under the now-terminated Chejva agreement, mining was permitted in an area of 10,000 square kilometers of Reko Diq hills. Contrast it with this nugget from a 2017 survey which suggests that the actual prospecting area in the Chagai district alone spans over an area of 40,000 square kilometers.

Similarly, a 2017 news report in a local publication claimed that large cobalt reserves exist in ophiolite complexes of Waziristan as well as Pakora valley of Gilgit Baltistan regions. A common criticism of such claims is that they often exaggerate valuation while underestimating cost of exploration. So, it is of note that the report was authored by a geological expert associated with the “Geochemical Exploration and Evaluation of Base Metals in Northern Areas, commissioned by PMDC from 1992 to 1998.

Let’s reserve any comments about cobalt transforming Pakistan’s economic destiny until further exploration. However, it is safe to claim that Pakistan’s mining policy lacks any forward thinking and remains well rooted in the past; a reflection of our national obsession with gold, silver and copper.

So, it is of little relevance whether the so called strategic mineral reserves are once again being handed over to one foreign creditor or another in exchange of a one-time bailout. States are rational economic agents that take advantage of information asymmetry and fill in the supply gap given the opportunity. If the future indeed belongs to cobalt, it appears we will not be a part of it.