Unlike most of northern Indus basin where shortage of water in the canal system can be easily substituted by groundwater abstraction, the story of major crop cultivation in Sindh is very different. As the groundwater in most of Sindh – especially in the districts below Larkana – is saline, dependence on groundwater for irrigation purposes is not practical. As a result, compared to farmers of Punjab, those in Sindh are affected more severely in years of low canal water availability.
Thus, crop output in Sindh widely varies from year to year depending on freshwater availability in river system. This specially affects yields of water thirsty crops such as rice, sugarcane and cotton.
In recent years, sugarcane cultivation in Sindh’s southern belt, home to two-third of sugar mills in the province - has been the latest casualty of intermittent water shortages. As more land in the southern region becomes unsuitable for cane cultivation, farmers appear to be switching back to a crop of lost glory – cotton.
To be accurate, cotton was always the largest crop of the province, until it soberingly lost that mantle to rice by 2007 and has been struggling to regain its top place since. But that story is for another time.
Cotton’s mainstay belt in the province have always been the central districts of Sanghar, Khairpur and Nawabshah – even though absolute acreage declined from a peak of 355 thousand hectares back in early 1980s, to an average 280 thousand hectares during the last ten years.
However, as more of provincial sugarcane plantation shifts up-north to Ghotki (read, “Changing Landscape of Sindh’s sugarcane” published August 09, 2019 in this section), cotton is making in-roads in southern Sindh.
Since early 1990s, sugarcane has commanded larger acreage in the southern region, especially in the rural districts surrounding Hyderabad city, and continued to do so consistently until 2012. The trend finally shifted gears beginning 2013, as cotton has been the most preferred crop in the region consistently for past four seasons.
The fresh trend is in sharp contrast to cotton’s substitution with sugarcane in the erstwhile cotton belt of southern Punjab, which often receives most attention due to cotton’s integral position in textile export value chain.
However, it is of note that not only Sindh’s cotton yield has been traditionally higher than Punjab on averages (thanks to higher yield in central districts), cotton yield recorded in southern Sindh districts in recent years such as Matiari, Jamshoro and Hyderabad at 1,110 kg per hectare is still higher than highest yield recorded in Punjab’s fertile crescent (at no more than 900 kg per hectare in Bahawalnagar), and much lower yield on average for Rahim Yar Khan and Bahawalpur, ranging between 650 – 750 kg per hectare.
Appreciation of implications of these changing cropping trends between Punjab and Sindh’s fertile regions is only preliminary, considering that despite Sindh’s better yield, its output is heavily canal water-dependant. However, it can be safely assumed that with increasing variability in weather patterns due to climate change, traditional definitions of crop-zones will no longer stand.
Pakistan understands of its major crop agricultural landscape is dated and remains rooted in the post-Indus Water Treaty paradigm. It’s high time to update it, and fast.
Source: PBS Agriculture Statistics; Sindh: Development Statistics.
Definition of regions used: North – Ghotki, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Shikarpur, Shahdad Kot, Sukkur, Larkana; Central – Dadu, Naushero Feroze, Khairpur, Sanghar, Nawabshah; South – Badin, Thatta, Sujawal, TM Khan, Tando A. Yar, Matiari, Hyderabad, Mirpurkhas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Jamshoro, Karachi.
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