Inventories are seen drawing down to 1.8 million tonnes at the end of the year, and will likely end 2015 at 1.7 million tonnes, said Ramli Abdullah, the head of MPOB's economic unit, at an industry meeting in Kuala Lumpur on Friday.
The industry regulator had previously pegged stocks to range between 1.6-1.8 million tonnes at end-2014, lower than the 1.99 million tonnes piled up at the end of 2013.
Output in Malaysia, the world's second largest palm grower, is expected to rise to 20.5 million tonnes in 2015, Ramli said.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil was seen at 17.9 million tonnes in 2014, below earlier forecasts for 18.5 million tonnes, but is expected to rise to 18.2 million tonnes in 2015.
Malaysian palm oil prices, which set the tone for global prices, are expected to trade between 2,300-2,500 ringgit per tonne in 2015, he added. Palm futures are currently trading at 2,303 ringgit per tonne.