Will India be ever shining?

15 May, 2004

Running close to the end of the elections, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance has not been able to secure a majority in the 543-member parliament and Atal Behari Vajpayee has thus stepped down as the Indian Prime Minister.
However it is to be seen what effect will the elections have on Indian economy? Will Indian boom last?
The momentum of economy is taking off and the growth rate is high. The GDP growth rate of 2003 reached 8.2% and the foreign exchange reserves are touching historical heights, amounting to $118 billion.
The stock market is scoring the highest points in ten years. Inflation rate and interest rates remain low. According to the purchasing power, India stands the fourth largest economic power in the world, its GDP accounting for 4.8% of the world's total.
The Indian potential of development can be judged through a single indicator that the Indian average GDP soared by 46% in the past ten years.
Indian companies have earned global fame in the areas of information technology and pharmacy. Indian software occupies the second largest empire in the world, the US being the first.
It is estimated that the total production value of information technology service industry will soar to $78 billion, accounting for 7% of Indian whole GDP by the year 2008.
The outgoing coalition boasted of the ever shining prospects for the economy. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) having been founded in April 1980 and having the majority of its membership from the middle class, mostly represents the interests of northern Indian identity of Hinduism and urban middle class.
As far as BJP's slogan "ever shining" was concerned, the rival parties argue against it because large quantity of benefits of the economic growth has not trickled down to the 530 million poverty-stricken population. Former Prime Minister V.P. Singh said recently India was neither shining nor were the people feeling good, as claimed by BJP in its poll campaign.
"Where is the shine and 'feel good' factor when hundreds of farmers are committing suicide across the country and 22 women were killed for the sake of getting a Rs 20 sari," he said addressing an election meeting.
India's stock market continued to suffer election-related jitters. The domestic political uncertainty led the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex to crash 168 points in intra-day trades to a low of 5,501.17, before recovering to a six-week closing low of 5,555.84.
Thus, the Sensex almost lost 250 points since the election process kicked off on April 20.
Analysts say after the new rulers take over there won't be major changes in India's economic policies.
The Congress Party, promised in its election manifesto, that it is committed to the existing economic reforms programme to attain a sustainable growth rate of 8-10% and broaden and deepen economic reforms.
Actually there were no wide differences between the two parties, both promised 10 million jobs. The BJP coalition pledged major reforms in agriculture, launching a second "green revolution" and ensuring to complete all ongoing irrigation projects within five years. It said new reform and opening up policy will be adopted in the area of aviation and telecommunication etc.
The Congress Party also announced effort would be made to improve farm incomes and provide equal opportunities for the minorities and lower-caste Dalits. Differences can be found in arguing against the BJP's "indiscriminate" privatisation drive.
The Congress Party said selective privatisation method would be followed towards the State-owned companies which generate profits or are engaged in energy and infrastructure development.
Actually it is always rather conspicuous to the various Indian administrations that they should adopt the way of taking forward reforms and opening up encouraging foreign investment and strengthening international co-operation and positively participate in the global competition.
These fundamental policies remain the same during five different administrations.
It is unlikely that the peace talks with Pakistan will be affected by the change of power.
Nowadays the Indian economy is bottlenecked by three key factors. First, the unbalanced industrial structure, the slow development of manufacture. Agriculture production value accounts too high in the overall GDP. However agriculture is very dependent on weather. Secondly, low investment rate.
The openness of government is far from enough and the strict labour policies and various restrictions on industry keep the foreign investor away. This is the main obstacle in the way of manufacturing industry. Lastly, the poor infrastructure.
The Congress, the incoming party to govern the country, will certainly come across these problems and if these can be tackled, India will certainly achieve sustainable fast growth.

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