London coffee ends down on origin selling

15 May, 2004

London coffee futures closed lower on Friday under origin pressure and with structural trade accounting for a significant part of the volume, dealers said.
Prices remained in well-known territory, where the market seemed to have found equilibrium, with roasters showing support at the bottom of the range and origin placing scale-up offers.
"Offers are abundant and the market has a lot of work to do if it wants to break to the upside," a trader said.
"We found a bit of support from the specs ahead of the weekend, but the $725 and the $730 level were clear selling points and the market is going nowhere until we digest the selling that is hanging above prices."
Benchmark July closed $2 down at $720, having moved 9,667 lots out of a total turnover of 12,098 lots in a $725-718 range.
Support was at $716 and then at $707, while resistance remained in the $725/730 area.
Second most-active September moved 1,699 lots to lose $2 and settled at $735.
Spreads and trade against actuals boosted the turnover, while many players remained sidelined and awaited further direction from the weekly CSCE Commitment of Traders report to be released late on Friday.
Traders said recent weakness in the Brazilian real against the dollar helped to attract sellers, while Indonesia remained also an active player with its crop going nearing its peak period.
Prospects of future large crops in top producers, including Brazil and Vietnam, weighed on prices, while the expected supply deficit in the 2003/04 season would cause minor dents in large world stocks.
Liffe said valid certified coffee stocks at its nominated warehouses as of May 10 were 28,498 five-tonne lots, up from 28,162 registered on April 26.
Brazil is expected to grow a crop of 40-45 million 60-kg bags in 2004/05 and a leading analyst said this week the world's top producer could skip the 'off' year of the bi-annual growing cycle and harvest a large 2005/06 crop.
Yet the proximity of the Brazilian winter, which starts on June 21, and of the high-risk frost season since the end of May should keep shorts on alert and limit the downside, dealers said.
Brazilian private forecaster Somar said on Friday temperatures were set to fall sharply on Sunday in northern Parana and southern Sao Paulo, but won't pose any coffee frost risk.

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