Last week, there was light rain in some of the cotton areas of Punjab and Lower Sindh which reduced the heat intensity. Planting in Lower Sindh is almost complete, and is in process in central Sindh.
Weather reports indicate normal monsoons this summer in India and Pakistan which might favour a bumper cotton crop of 11.5 million 170-kg bales in 2004-05.
Growers appear quite ambitious to enhance the area under cotton. The Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (Minfal) and the departments/institutions connected with cotton are holding routine meetings to ensure regular supply of all inputs including seed, fertiliser and pesticides etc, but all on paper.
The ground realities speak otherwise. The most important input is seed which has the largest contribution in productivity and quality of cotton.
Government arrangements are only limited to around one-third supply of seed while the rest is supplied by private sector, without any quality standards and governmental control.
Repeatedly it has been said that despite tall claims of the government and its agencies, Pakistan's productivity and quality have not improved in the past 13 years. It means that all efforts and expenses made have gone waste. Our domestic cotton consumption is increasing every year.
In 2003, Pakistan imported 632,000 short-staple spindles which would increase cotton consumption by one million 170-kg bales.
The Punjab Industrial Estate Development and Management Company (PIEDMC) has planned to set up Sundar Textile City in Punjab which would have 250 textile units and this 'city' would become operational in January, 2006.
For this purpose 1,500 acres land has already been acquired. This project would create 300,000 direct jobs. Thus, the gap between domestic cotton supply and consumption would be increasing by around 3.0 to 4.0 million local bales. Can our spinning industry perform well and stay competitive in world market by consuming imported cotton? There are doubts about it.
Lint cotton prices in the local market last week improved by about Rs 100 to Rs 150 per mound. Better grade cotton was sold at as high as Rs 3,200 per mound ex-gin, but generally the rate for better grade cotton was Rs 3,000-Rs 3,100; for average grade around Rs 2,800-Rs 3,000; and lower grades down to Rs 2,500 per mound.
The Pakistan Cotton Ginners' Association (PCGA) may issue final cotton statistics for the 2003-04 crop by May 19. Trade circles estimate the amount of unsold cotton around 750,000 local bales, mostly with ginners and a small quantity with exporters.
The ginners are reluctant to sell their cotton expecting further increase in prices.
The spinners are reportedly again showing interest in foreign cotton. There are reports of fresh booking of US, Australian and Brazilian cotton on 'Unfix' basis with 'Ons' ranging between 5 and 9 cents over New York cotton futures for new crop. In view of better prospects and expectations of a larger global crop, of 102.5 million bales, in 2004-05 season cotton prices in international as well as local markets are expected to remain depressed, possibly down to 40.0 cents per lb.
Although, Pakistan's cotton production would possibly be short by about 2.0 million local bales of its domestic consumption, selling pressure in November might push the local prices down considerably.
This season, due to greater loss in Second Pick of cotton and exceptionally larger output of Third Pick, cotton arrivals were extended up to April, but in the coming season the situation may be different.
New York futures market balanced buyers and sellers. July contract marginally increased by C/pts 22 while new crop October contract decreased by C/pts 62 to finally finish at 64.97 cents and 62.70 cents respectively. US export sales and shipments up to May 6 were as under: (in million bales).

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               Sales     Shipments     percentage
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Upland        12.535       9.312            74.29
Pima           0.472       0.423            89.62
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Total         13.007       9.735            74.84
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Prominent buyers of US cotton were: China 4.853 million 480-lb bales; Mexico 1.703, Turkey 1.265, Indonesia 0.843, Korea Rep 0.479, Thailand 0.424, Canada 0.411, Pakistan 0.408, Japan 0.364, Taiwan 0.318, Brazil 0.302, India 0.202 and Bangladesh 0.171 million bales.
According to a report, in 2003, US textile industry lost some 50,000 jobs--about 10 percent jobs. About 50 textile units were closed down.
China's exports of apparels to US rose drastically after removal of quota, and in less than two years' period China gained a share of 55 percent--almost twice as large as the next largest supplier Mexico.
China has performed very well in textile sector in the first quarter of this calendar year. Its GDP growth registered an increase of 9.7 percent. Fixed Assets Investment increased 43 percent.
Textile production increased 24. 02 percent to US $1.76 billions. MMF increase by 28.6 percent to 3.31 million tons.
Yarn production increased by 11.99 percent to 2.28 million tons. Fabrics increased by 18.68 percent to 6.2 billion square metres. Apparels increased by 9.80 percent to 2.4 billion pieces.
The performance of textile sector was quite impressive but in terms of profit it was not impressive.
China in March imported 249,800 tons = 544,030 bales of 480-lb. During September, 2003 to April 2004, total US upland cotton imports into China were 1,048,400 tons = 4,813,896 bales.
New crop cotton sowing in Xingjiang, Yellow River Valley and Yangtze River valley provinces has been completed while in other provinces it is in progress.
In 2003, China received shipments of 4,951,308 short-staple spindles--about 60 percent of total world shipments.
China and Turkey received shipments of Shuttleless looms of the 71 percent of the total world in 2003.
India is reported to have released 10 Hybrid GM varieties for trials at different stages. India is also planning to switch its cotton evaluation system from manual to instrumental through wider use of HVIs.
India is also manufacturing High Volume Machine (HVI) which is a compact machine widely used in cotton and spinning industries for determining important fibre properties.
The price of Indian HVI is less than 50 percent of the price of Swiss HVI. India has already adopted GM technology and is improving it to increase its cotton productivity.