Technical strength ups wheat futures

09 Jan, 2005

Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures closed mostly higher on Friday on short-covering amid bullish technical signals, traders said. CBOT wheat ended 1 cent per bushel lower to 2 cents higher, with March up 1-1/2 cents at $3.09-3/4. March pushed through chart resistance at its 50-day moving average of $3.10, reaching a session high of $3.12 before profit taking weighed on values.
Volume was estimated at 32,498 futures and 2,998 options.
Trade was choppy in the absence of significant fundamental news. Market players were looking ahead to the US Department of Agriculture's Jan. 12 supply/demand reports, which will include estimates of US winter wheat seedings.
For 2005 total US winter wheat area, the average estimate from analysts polled by Reuters was 43.203 million acres, a decline from 43.350 million acres seeded in 2004. But estimates ranged from 42.3 million to 44.6 million.
The average analyst estimate for hard red winter wheat area was 31.059 million acres, up from 30.778 million in 2004.
The average estimate for soft red winter wheat area was 7.531 million acres, a decline from 8.227 million in 2004.
Fund buying was a feature in wheat late this week, notably on Thursday. Grain analysts attributed part of Thursday's rally in both wheat and corn to changes in the 2005 Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. Goldman Sachs weighted its 2005 commodity index more toward grains and away from oil, steering more money from index funds into the grain markets, the analysts said.

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