Soybean futures rally

09 Jan, 2005

Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade rallied more than 10 cents per bushel in the nearby months on Friday on firm cash markets as values at the US export market were strong, traders said. CIF values at the US Gulf Coast held firm early on Friday, underpinned by exporter demand and limited movement tied to problems transporting commodities to export markets at the Gulf of Mexico. High water levels on Midwest rivers, the arteries for moving grain to the Gulf, slowed barges.
"There's problems with logistics. Barge freight jumped up again today. There's just difficulty originating enough beans to meet Chinese shipments," said Dan Cekander, analyst with Fimat Futures.
The firmness in the cash market was underscored by strength in the nearby futures spread, with January closing at a 9-1/2 cent premium to March.
There was talk of fresh Chinese and European business, with China possibly buying two cargoes of US soybeans, floor traders said.
Some underpinning stemmed from growing concerns over the bean crop in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's No. 3 soy state, due to dryness, analysts said.
CBOT soybean futures closed 7-3/4 to 10-1/4 cents per bushel higher. January was up 10 at $5.51-3/4 and March was up 9-3/4 cents at $5.42-1/4.
Buying escalated early in the session when March pushed through its 50-day moving average at $5.38-1/2.
The day's rally in futures sparked farmers to sell soybeans to processors and exporters.
Commercials were bull spreading January/March, traders said. Term Commodities, the marketing arm of exporter Louis Dreyfus, spread about 1,000 January/March. Produce Grain was also bull spreading the front months.
Funds were net buyers of about 2,000 lots, but no where near the levels seen in corn and wheat futures on Thursday, when commodity investments funds bought huge amounts of both grains.
Floor traders were waiting for a similar move in the soybean pit on Friday. But most of the day's strength in soybeans was tied to commercial activity, they said.
Soymeal futures were exceptionally strong, closing $2.50 to $6 per ton higher. Technical buying helped drive prices to the day's highs as March broke through its 10-, 20- and 50-day moving averages in the $159-$160 range.
January soymeal closed $6 higher at $162.90 and March was $5.20 firmer at $162.80. Funds net bought 2,000 to 3,000 meal contracts. Commercials were also net buyers.
"One of the reasons that meal is holding as well as it is - is that usage is actually pretty good, better than people realise," said Anne Frick, a Prudential Securities analyst, referring to a steady export pace. US soymeal exports are up 5 percent from a year ago.
The soyoil market also closed higher, following the strength in beans and meal. January oil was 0.19 cent firmer at 20.27 cents and March was up 0.24 at 20.41.
Malaysian palm oil futures closed mostly lower overnight on speculation of a sharp drop in January export demand.
In the CBOT delivery market, there were no soybean or soyoil deliveries posted against the January contract on Friday.
Soybean registrations with the CBOT were unchanged at two lots late Thursday. CBOT soyoil registrations were also unchanged at 2,101 contracts.
There were 125 soymeal deliveries against the January contract on Friday. A Prudential customer was the key stopper of 118 lots.
Soymeal registrations with the CBOT increased to 215 lots late Thursday from the previous 165.
Volume was heaviest in the soybean and soymeal pits. In soybeans, an estimated 82,832 futures and 21,231 options traded.
Soymeal trade was seen at 33,867 futures and 1,706 options. Soyoil volume was estimated at 19,910 futures and 847 options.

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