New Zealand February trade data shows unexpected deficit

30 Mar, 2005

New Zealand posted an unexpected preliminary trade deficit in February after imports were boosted by higher values for petroleum products and a stronger currency dented export returns, according to official data released on Tuesday. The preliminary deficit for the month was NZ$127 million ($90 million), and for the year through February was estimated at NZ$4.13 billion.
The data compared with a median forecast in a Reuters poll for a surplus of NZ$50 million for the month and a deficit of NZ$3.96 billion for the year to February 28.
Imports were up 8.3 percent on the previous month led by higher values for imported crude oil, partly refined fuels, mechanical and electrical machinery, iron and steel.
Exports estimated at 17.1 percent higher than previous month, and 5.6 percent on year ago. Details in updated data on April 7.
NZ dollar trade weighted index rose 1.5 percent on January.
Deficit only the second for February month in the past decade, and the highest for a February month since 1992. Deficit equates of 4.8 percent of exports.
"I think because of the current account numbers last week, they'll probably attract a little bit of attention - just whether things are continuing to get worse or not and it sounds like they are. So it's likely that we'll see a worse number on the current account deficit yet.
"Pretty limited (implications for the Reserve Bank). Probably a bit of a negative for the currency on the day but not a biggie."
The New Zealand dollar was little changed at $0.7049/59 from $0.7052/62 immediately before the data release. Debt markets were unmoved. The June bank bill contract implies a yield 35 points above the 6.75 percent official cash rate.
New Zealand's trade balance has been deteriorating over the past year as strong New Zealand dollar, up 5.2 percent on a trade weighted basis in 2004 and 9.7 percent higher against the US dollar, has cut export earnings.

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