Soya down in light trade

31 Mar, 2005

Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed weak on Tuesday in light trade ahead of Thursday's scheduled release of March plantings and stocks data, traders said. Nearby contracts gained on deferreds amid a slowdown in farmer selling this week and overall steady to firm cash basis markets, they said. CBOT soy closed 1/4 to 4-1/2 cents per bushel lower. May was down 1-3/4 at $6.24 per bushel.
Exports overnight were routine and featured Taiwan's purchase of 60,000 tonnes of soy from Louis Dreyfus Corp, with shipment slated from the Pacific Northwest during May.
Crop weather in South America has moved to the background as a market factor, traders said. Drought damage to the Brazilian crop has been factored in the market and near-term outlooks call for overall satisfactory weather, they said.
Traders and analysts said outlooks for good spring planting weather also weighed on prices.
"Great weather now is keeping both corn and beans under control ahead of the report," said Jerry Gidel, analyst for North America Risk Management Inc.
Position-squaring was noted ahead of the release early Thursday of the US Agriculture Department's March planting intentions and quarterly stocks reports.
An average of analysts' estimates pegged the stocks of US soy on March 1 at 1.425 billion bushels, sharply above the year ago total of 906 million.
Analysts on average expect soy seedings this year in the United States at 73.368 million acres, below the 75.2 million last year.
Cash basis bids for soy in the Midwest were mostly steady to firm amid very light trade.
Technical support in the May contract was at $6.18-3/4 per bushel and resistance at $6.32-1/2.
The nine-day relative strength index for May closed Monday at 47. Technical traders view an RSI of 30 or less as an oversold market and 70 or more as an overbought market.
Soymeal futures closed 50 cents per ton lower to $1.20 higher. May was up 50 at $186.60 per ton.
Soyoil closed 0.17 cent per lb higher to 0.10 lower, with May up 0.08 at 22.87 cents per lb. Short covering and support from the firm close overnight in rival Malaysian palm oil futures aided the advances in soyoil futures.

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