CBOT wheat futures mixed, trade thin

31 Mar, 2005

Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed mixed on Tuesday, with the nearby months sagging on a lack of follow-through after light fund buying lifted values early, traders said. May wheat closed down 1-1/2 cents at $3.34-1/2 per bushel after sell-stops were hit at $3.39 to $3.40, traders said. Deferred months ended down 2 cents to up 6 cents.
May had early support from a flurry of wheat/corn spreading, with Calyon Financial buying about 800 May wheat and selling about 1,000 May corn, traders said.
Trade was slow overall, and a lack of volume contributed to volatility in the back months. Funds were net buyers of about 500 contracts, traders said.
Wheat volume was estimated at 21,565 futures and 5,217 options.
Traders were hesitant to take positions ahead of the release on Thursday of the US Department of Agriculture's March planting intentions and quarterly stocks reports.
"We're waiting. This is typical in front of a major report," said Vic Lespinasse, a floor broker with A.G. Edwards.
The average estimate from analysts polled by Reuters for March 1 US wheat stocks was 993 million bushels, below the year-ago figure of 1.021 billion.
The average estimate for US spring wheat seedings this year was 13.729 million acres, slightly below last year's 13.763 million. The average trade estimate for total US wheat seedings was 57.961 million acres, down from last year's 59.674 million.
Ample global wheat stocks, a firm US dollar and quiet exports continued to hang over the market. Exports were routine overnight, with a private buyer in Malta purchasing 12,000 tonnes of hard wheat that was thought to be from the United States.
Satisfactory crop weather in US winter wheat regions and in Europe was bearish. USDA late Monday gave the Kansas wheat crop a 72 percent good to excellent rating, while 71 percent of the Texas crop and 72 percent of the Oklahoma crop was rated good to excellent.
In Europe, French wheat prices declined as long-awaited weekend showers, which were expected to continue over the next few days, partly relieved fears of drought damage to crops.
In a reminder of stiff competition for global wheat business, two leading Ukrainian agriculture consultancies raised their forecasts for Ukraine's 2004/05 grain exports. ProAgro raised its wheat export outlook to 3.3 million tonnes, from 3.2 million. UkrAgroConsult increased its export outlook for wheat to 3.850 million tonnes, from 3.8 million.

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