Asian currencies mixed as markets await Fed move

29 May, 2006

Asian currencies ended the week mixed against the dollar with markets awaiting key US economic data for clues as to whether the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its cycle of interest rate hikes at its next meeting in June.
JAPANESE YEN: The yen seesawed against the dollar in Tokyo as market players continued to watch economic data for trends in interest rate differentials in Japan and the United States, dealers said.
The Japanese currency stood at 111.94-97 to the dollar late Friday, compared with 111.73-75 to the dollar a week earlier. It touched its three-week low of 112.95 to the dollar on Monday and Thursday.
The yen rallied to 111.47 to the dollar at one point on Friday after the government announced Japan's consumer price index rose for the sixth straight month in April, indicating that the economy is moving out of deflation.
But it eased later as the figures were largely within expectations for a market which is waiting to see when the Bank of Japan will lift interest rates.
"I think that the report supported the market view that an interest rate hike could be possible in July," said Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ chief analyst Osamu Takashima.
Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui has said rates would be increased only slowly to keep inflation under control and that the central bank had still not decided when to bring an end to the era of near-zero borrowing costs.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: The Australian dollar is expected to track sideways or strengthen slightly against the greenback next week amid evidence of a moderation of US economic growth that should ease pressure on US interest rates.
But analysts said key US price data which was released later Friday could impact on the Aussie.
At 5:00 pm Friday (0700 GMT), the dollar was trading at 75.90 US cents, down on the previous week's 76.29 US cents.
CommSec chief equities economist Craig James said he expected the dollar to hold steady until the next US Federal Reserve meeting on June 29, as a result of mixed economic data recently. "The economic data between now and then will be crucial, especially readings like the ISM manufacturing index next Thursday and non-farm payrolls on Friday," he said.
Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital Investors, predicted the Aussie would remain "reasonably strong", supported by strong commodity prices and recent signs of a slowing in US economic growth that should ease pressure on the Fed to again hike US interest rates.
RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong said the short-term fate of the Australian dollar was linked to the release overnight of the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) core deflator for April - a preferred measure of price pressures by the Federal Reserve.
She said pressure for another interest rate increase would rise if the PCE came in above the Fed's "comfort zone" of around two percent.
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: The New Zealand dollar ended the week at 63.70 US cents, up sharply from 62.26 the previous Friday.
The local dollar hit a high of 64.18 late Thursday following news of a trade surplus in April, confounding economists who expected a large deficit.
The data gave hope that the current account may retreat from its lofty levels around nine percent of gross domestic product sooner than expected.
CHINESE YUAN: The Chinese yuan finished Friday at 8.0250 to the dollar, compared with 8.0240 the day before and 8.0220 on May 20.
Friday's central parity rate for the yuan was set at 8.0216 to the dollar. The central bank has a daily yuan-dollar trading band of 0.3 percent on either side of the midpoint.
HONG KONG DOLLAR: The US-dollar pegged Hong Kong dollar closed the week at 7.7564 from the previous week's close of 7.7553
INDONESIAN RUPIAH: The rupiah ended the week weaker at 9,250/9,270 to the dollar compared to the previous week's close of 9,190/9,200.
PHILIPPINE PESO: The Philippine peso fell to 52.78 to the dollar on Friday afternoon compared to 52.650 to the dollar on May 19.
SINGAPORE DOLLAR: The US dollar was at 1.5795 Singapore dollars on Friday from 1.5825 the previous week.
SOUTH KOREAN WON: The won closed at 945.60 to the dollar Friday, compared with 946.30 won a week earlier, as the dollar weakened 3.50 won on the day as exporters continuously changed their dollar earnings into the local currency at the 945 won level.
Dealers said the fluctuation of the won was expected to widen in the coming week ahead of May 31 local elections.
The direction of the won in the week ahead was expected to be largely dependent upon the movement of foreign investors, they said.
TAIWAN DOLLAR: The Taiwan dollar closed lower against the US dollar at 32.038 compared with 31.948 a week earlier.
THAI BAHT: The Thai baht firmed against the dollar over the week but its gains were limited due to speculation over rising US interest rates, dealers said.
The Thai unit closed Friday at 38.14-17 to the greenback, little changed from 38.12-16 a week earlier.

Read Comments