A little head-start helps. For the second decade running, Mobilink (now Jazz) has been leading the pack of mobile network operators (MNOs) in Pakistan. Swallowing Warid last year was a major inorganic boon, putting some daylight between Jazz and the three remaining MNOs.

By March 2017, data from the telecoms watchdog PTA show, Jazz was commanding some 52.5 million subscriptions in the three connectivity segments. (For a breakdown, please refer to the illustration.) That’s about 38 percent of the total cellular market.

Jazz leads the 2G segment with 39.3 million subscriptions and a 40 percent market share. It also headlines the 3G arena, with 12.4 million subs and a 35 percent market share. In the 4G segment, where Jazz picked Warid’s LTE users, it is ranked second, with 0.8 million subs and an 18 percent market share. Except for Ufone, the three remaining MNOs are operating in all three segments.

While Jazz has clearly fattened itself lately, the second-ranked operator, Telenor, remains a steady carrier, true to its form. Telenor may be number two in the market, but it tries perhaps the hardest to differentiate itself. It commands a 30 percent share in both 2G and 3G markets as of March end. A late entrant in the 4G segment, Telenor had only 7 percent share there, with its 0.3 million subscriptions.

The case of Zong is interesting. Recall that after its 2007-08 entry, the China Mobile subsidiary had gate-crashed the market through its highly price-competitive voice and Sms offerings. That strategy appealed to the mass segment. But when data tell you that Zong had a mere 17 percent share in 2G markets in March 2017, it suggests that Zong’s top two rivals have weathered that ‘disruption’ really well.

But Zong seems to have changed course in the mobile broadband era. It seems eager to be associated more with speed and quality than with a low-tariff positioning. A PTA survey last year showed Zong as the leading player in terms of mobile broadband speed in the North. And its market penetration also looks good. Zong had a 22 percent share in 3G and 75 percent share in the 4G segment as of March 2017.

However, Zong will need to build scale to maximize return from its spectrum holdings. But the organic route will take long. The only way to do it soon is to solicit the last-ranked operator. Ufone subscriptions in the critical 3G segment have fallen lately, with its market share plummeting to 13 percent. Even in the 2G pie, Ufone has a 14 percent slice. The operator made net loss of around Rs5 billion in CY16.

Overall, the telecom subscriptions are beginning to flat line after a recent burst of growth coming from 3G adoption. In the three months ended March 2017, 2G subscriptions remained almost flat at 99 million; 3G subscriptions grew by only 2 percent – or 0.7 million – to reach 35.4 million; and the only growth story was 4G, whose subs grew 54 percent to come to 5 million. But 4G is a niche market.

If recent numbers are any guide, the time of a million new mobile broadband subscriptions’ addition is now over. While operators will gradually keep migrating more folks onto 3G and 4G networks, the real battle may soon be retaining those customers.

That raises a plausible but yet unlikely prospect of another price war. Telco’s have sobered up, some experts argue. But it takes a total of one to start the fire.