For some years now Pakistan appears to be a fair game for the western crystal-gazers. The latest attack has come from the National Intelligence Council (NIC), a subsidiary of the CIA, which has released its "Global Trends 2025 - A Transformed World", figuring out how the world would look like some 13 years from now. It sees Pakistan a "failed state" teetering on the edge of collapse.
"The future of Pakistan is a wild card in considering the trajectory of neighbouring Afghanistan...If Pakistan is unable to hold together until 2025 a broader coalescence of Pushtun tribes is likely to emerge and act together to erase the Durand Line". The report is, in fact, talking of 'Greater Pukhtunistan' an imagined entity depicted on hoardings recently planted in the southern districts of the NWFP.
Similar prognosis was aired some time back by the Army Journal, a publication of the US Army, as it discussed re-shaping of the Islamic world. As for Pakistan's much-maligned nuclear programme, the NIC report says "the ongoing low-intensity clashes" with India could escalate into a nuclear war, adding a warning against its "terrorist use".
The report places Pakistan in the category of 'high-risk countries', also for its rapidly growing population and the danger it faces of fresh-water scarcity. We do share the perception, expressed in a knowledgeable section of media, that the NIC report is intended to "inform" President-elect Barack Obama of the factors that will influence global events.
But we also know that quite often such tactfully calibrated information is released by the intelligence agencies in order to influence the course of events that are in the making. Not surprisingly, Pakistan's nuclear programme remains in the eye of storm. Ever since the invention of 'Islamic Bomb' - even before its coming into being - various techniques have been employed to create doubts about the safety and security of Pakistan's nuclear assets.
Now that the argument that it can pass into the hands of extremists is losing logic, the NIC report has talked of tensions with India and violation of international non-proliferation regime - as if the US did not violate it by agreeing to sell weapon-oriented nuclear technology to India.
This outlandish claim runs counter to the fact that nowhere in the world is a country's nuclear arsenal in danger of being hijacked, and that, historically, its use as a weapon has been only a solitary occurrence when the United States nuked two Japanese cities in the Second World War.
To say that a number of "rogue states" - which the report believes are growing in number - will be prepared to share their destructive nuclear technology with terror groups is an absurd assertion to merit contradiction. But we do understand that some forces, some placed inside and others using the remote control mode, are at work to destabilise Pakistan, politically and economically. President Zardari is absolutely right in saying that Pakistan is confronted with "economic terrorism".
That these challenges can be met fairly and squarely we are confident. The consensus resolution adopted last month by the parliament amply demonstrates the national will to stand up to the threat of militancy and extremism. But it is important that threats that tend to materialise are detected in time, a job that should be the shared responsibility of the government, media and various segments of civil society.
In this context one would like to point out that the fear in some quarters that constant inflow of economic workers to Karachi from rest of the country would upset the demographic character of the metropolis is unfounded. They cannot be legally stopped from coming to Karachi. The Constitution protects a citizen's right to "move freely throughout Pakistan and to reside and settle in any part" of Pakistan.
Likewise, to insist that while some people may live and work in Karachi but not be on the roll of voters would be also unconstitutional. In fact, this is the kind of mindset that can play into foreign hands and pose a threat to the territorial integrity of Pakistan. It is hoped the NIC prognosis does not countenance lending support to such moves, though vicariously.