Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) Chairman Shakeel Durrani, portraying a realistic picture of power shortfall, Tuesday categorically said that the curse of load shedding would be eliminated by 2018.
Briefing National Assembly standing committee on water and power on mega hydel power projects in the country, Durrani said uneven power generation is the chief factor behind load shedding and that could be avoided through mega hydel projects, which will take at least another six years to complete.
The revelation by Wapda chief that power demand could go up to 130,000MW by 2030 made the committee members speechless. The federal government was committed to shift 50 percent power generation from thermal to hydel to overcome the lingering power crisis, he added.
The Wapda chief told the committee that Gilgit-Baltistan has the capacity to generate 60,000 to 100,000MW hydel and thermal electricity, which needs government attention to properly exploit the available resources in the region.
Durrani informed the committee that Wapda has planned to initiate test generation before making Diamer-Basha dam power units, completely operational while after completion of raising and upgrading phase of Mangla Dam; power generation capacity would increase up to 15 percent. He said that water level at Mangla Dam would shoot up to 1210 feet by the end of 2011, which would enhance the water storage capacity up to 0.8 million acre feet (MAF).
Commenting on the massive power generation cost gap between hydel and thermal plants, Durrani said thermal power costs Rs 10.18 per unit - 870 percent higher than power generated by hydel sources which works out to Rs 1.05 per unit, adding that hydropower generation helped save Rs 41 billion in 2010.
Elaborating the current status of Neelam Jehlum Hydropower Project, the Wapda chairman claimed that India could not build dams on three western rivers. However, 16-kilometer long tunnel of Neelam Jhelum Hydro Project had been constructed. Sajjad-ul-Hassan, a member of the committee became furious and threatened to set ablaze Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco) office in district Okara if the government fails to eliminate the 22 hours loadshedding in his constituency.
The Wapda officials informed the committee that the authority's maximum generation capacity in peak hours stood at 13,669MW against demand of about 18,114MW, leaving a gap of 4,445MW. Senior officials from concerned ministry maintained that about 600MW shortfall was caused by short supply of furnace oil because about 20,000 tons of oil per day was being provided to generation companies and independent power producers against a requirement of 28,000 tons.
They said circular debt restricted the power companies to pay off their oil bills to suppliers and with lower oil import, a shortage of around 500MW power is inevitable as a result of less capacity utilisation by generation companies. They said the gas companies were supplying about 230 million cubic feet of gas per day (mmcfd) to power stations at Guddu and Kotri against committed 700mmcfd.
They said that humidity-related tripping could not be ruled out in coming days as the monsoon is around the corner. The overall shortfall would remain within manageable limits because of slight reduction in power demand when the temperature falls and river flows improve generation from hydropower stations.