Brent, US crude fall

02 Jul, 2011

Oil fell on Friday on signs of slower growth in China and weaker US consumer sentiment, offsetting a supportive report showing an improving manufacturing sector in the United States. An intraday bounce by the dollar against the euro and the strength of the dollar index, measuring the greenback against a basket of currencies, also helped pressure dollar-denominated oil.
Both Brent and US crude ended the week higher, despite Friday's weakness, though slim trading volumes ahead of Monday's US Independence Day holiday resulted in choppy trading on Friday. Volumes for both US and Brent crude were well below their 30-day averages. "Crude futures fell today on the soft factory data from China and the stronger dollar," said Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.
Brent futures for August fell 71 cents to settle at $111.77 a barrel, after falling as low as $109.50 intraday. But front-month Brent rebounded to post a weekly gain of 6.33 percent.
US crude fell 48 cents to settle at $94.94 a barrel, having recovered from an earlier $93.45 low. For the week, front-month crude gained 4.15 percent. China's factory sector grew at its slowest pace in 28 months in June as new orders expanded less quickly as weaker global demand and tight monetary policy at home pinched production. US consumer sentiment worsened in June. While falling gasoline prices stabilised consumers' view of their current economic conditions, longer-term expectations remained subdued, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed.
The dollar got a boost and crude prices pared some losses intraday after data from the Institute for Supply Management showed the US manufacturing sector expanded in June more than expected, sparking some optimism that the sputtering economy may be regaining some traction. Any signs of a slowdown in China add to investor nervousness because of recent indications of slowed US economic growth and Europe's struggles with its sovereign debt crisis.
Although the Greek parliament voted for an austerity package this week, there is scepticism about the government's ability to deliver on promised cuts. The US Department of Energy listed the "acceptable" offers it had received for 30 million barrels of crude it will release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over the next month.
The sale attracted more interested buyers than barrels offered and reinforced investors uncertainty about the impact of the new supply of crude and products that will enter the market as part of the International Energy Agency's co-ordinated release announced on June 23.
Oil was not the only commodity feeling pressure. The 19 commodity Reuters-Jefferies CRB index fell, extending its weak trend from June and the second quarter. "I'm hearing from hedge funds that there is a potential for a big unwind in commodities. At the very least they will start having to trade more on supply and demand fundamentals and less on outside factors," said Richard Ilczyszyn, senior market strategist, Lind-Waldock in Chicago. "Longs (in oil) are wary that pushing prices too high will trigger another reserves release."
Investors will get a snapshot of speculator reaction to the IEA's announcement about releasing oil reserves when positions data through Tuesday is released later on Friday by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Also looming next week, after Monday's Independence Day holiday in the United States, is the closely watched June nonfarm payrolls report that will arrive on July 8.

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