NA 154 was for PTI (almost), what NA 207 is for PPP or NA 120 for PML-N. Not anymore. The by-election results from NA 154 were nothing short of an upset. It came as a surprise even for the winners, let alone the pundits. And the margin of victory for PML-N, more importantly, the margin of defeat for PTI, tells a million tales.

Recall that PML-N stood a distant third in the GE2013 in the constituency, which was won by an independent candidate. The same candidate was then awarded PML-N ticket in 2015 by-elections and lost to PTI by a handsome margin of 38,786 votes. Fast forward 26 months, and PTI has lot to PML-N by over 26,000 votes. The defeat is more humbling, considering that PTI has lost a ground of over 51,000 votes in just a little over two years.

What changed? For one, PTI’s choice of candidate defied all what the party claims it stands for. It took the ‘electable’ route and that backfired. Some would argue that Lodhran, situated in the South Punjab, is not exactly a constituency to be that mindful of dynastic politics. But that is where they underestimated the general voter intelligence. Could the end result have been any different had PTI nominated anyone but whom it did? Maybe not. But for sure, the lost ground would certainly not have been as high as 51,000 votes.

Now the other side of the story. PML-N’s surge from being third in 2013, to a distant second in 2015, to a comfortable winner in 2018, is nothing short of remarkable. Make fun of the ‘kyun nikala’ mantra as much as you like, it seems to have resonated well with the audience. It has been sold relentlessly, and the buyers, it seems are aplenty.

And mind you, this is not a GT Road or the Motorway constituency. Couple the ‘kyun nikala’ campaign with the two big fulfilled promises of PML-N, i.e. load shedding and security situation – it would be rather miraculous to go past the PML-N in the battleground that is Punjab. And South Punjab has not even been the focus of the government, in terms of infrastructure development.

Yes, six months is a long time in electoral politics, and one by-election is too small a sample and too simple a way to look into what the future holds. The PTI may well go back to the drawing board and come up with a better strategy. But, even if it was not for PTI’s mistakes, the grounds that the PML-N has earned in the meanwhile appear big enough to trump the opponents.

All things constant (no engineering), it may be an easier route to Islamabad for PML-N than it was in 2013. And those banking on a possible conviction of the elder Sharif by the courts in NAB cases, must remember, it is only going to add to the momentum for the ruling party.
In other news, PPP also contested from Lodhran.