The goose is cooked - that's what political parlor-games these days suggest of Nawaz Sharif's fate in Pakistani politics. One could discard such insinuation as a politician's wish or a pundit's prediction. Yet, it increasingly seems that the "system" has had enough of the elder Sharif. The way things are going, the knockout blow might be delivered in the election campaign season this summer, when the caretakers are set to run the show.
Arguably, it might cause the system more harm if the PML-N paid too dearly for its defiance at the hands of the perceived empire/umpire combine. With both Sharifs in the dock, a chill would run through the land, shrinking the already-reduced space for political freedom.
Pakistan needs a healthy atmosphere to politically debate its social, economic, security and diplomatic issues. While past polls have been criticized for taking the voters for a ride, elections still offer the best platform for voters to see how political parties across the spectrum plan on tackling key issues. As for large parties, polls are an opportunity to acquire/renew political mandate for their idea of needed reforms.
But if the largest political party is rendered headless and crippled in peak election season, the remaining political bunch will be at pains to not cross the powers that be. Political opportunism may prevail at the expense of presenting tangible solutions to people's pressing problems. Feeling tough odds and gasping for life, the PML-N, too, might be forced to get in line to thwart more agony and to stay relevant.
Can an election, in such circumstances, offer substantial change from the status quo? Can the resulting political dispensation strengthen the foundations of democratic governance in this country? Can it be expected to significantly improve legislation in the domain of human rights? Can it find space for a rigorous reassessment of the country's relations with neighboring and regional countries? Looks unlikely!
The remedy perhaps lies in the political opposition doing some soul-searching, instead of simply rejoicing at the sight of Nawaz being dragged out of the system kicking and screaming. If the PML-N is indeed in the process of being assigned to history, the PTI and the PPP have a responsibility between them to become a political alternative that can stand on its own feet and create political space to govern in public interest. Else, they risk being the ones on the way out when the mood begins to turn sour on them in a few years.