Elections are all about transitions; well mostly, and as such there is no rocket science behind the reasons why. But the one being held tomorrow is one of the most critical transitions that Pakistan could ever see.
To begin with, the next five years of Pakistan’s economic performance, especially in the context of structural economic reforms, are critical in terms of whether the country will be able to reap, and also hopefully maximise the so-called demographic dividend.
Pakistan’s ‘window of opportunity’ to reap the demographic dividend for solid economic growth opened in 1990 and is projected to shut down by 2045. The almost fifty-year long ‘offer’ was at its best in early 2000s before starting to withdraw and ultimately end in 2045. Hold on to that thought, and consider another. It takes about 10-15 years for whole scale structural reforms to near completion; that’s the ballpark lesson from the experience of South East Asian countries, Turkey, and some countries Latin America. The reaping of the fruits of those reforms begins midway but whole scale production of its fruits comes after with a lag.
Put these two strands of thought together implies that even if Pakistan begins to roll out full blown reforms on urgent footing in the upcoming five years, Pakistan will be left with just about 10-13 years to maximise on the demographic dividend. Any delay in the rolling out reforms will further reduce the time in that window of opportunity.
The second transition is about politics. No stranger to de facto two-party system (PPP & PML-N) since the 90s, it appears that this is the only time in the foreseeable future when a third party (PTI) may emerge as a consistent strong contender, provided it wins enough seats to form a government and delivers excellence in the ensuing five years. If it doesn’t win, then it may wither by 2023. After all, many who have joined the PTI are rational agents and rational agents tend to avoid sticking around with the ‘should-haves’ and ‘might-have-beens’.
A related transition is the passing of baton to the next generation of political leadership in the PPP and PML-N - Bilawal and Maryam - who have been gradually but increasingly becoming the new face of the party even if it’s just a face for now. The PTI apparently has no one to pass the baton to. That may be a great thing for those don’t like dynastic politics. But in terms of real politic it means that this is probably the last time PTI can emerge as a serious contender at national level.
The third transition relates to regional connectivity. Both the US and China want to connect this region together – each rooting for various connectivity projects in Central Asia, South Asia, South East Asia; China more so than the US in the wake of OBOR. India and China have also realised that the more to lose than to gain if these economic giants don’t cooperate; hence positive developments in the SCO each year.
Granted that these are long term projects, spanning 10-15 years – sometimes just to lay the ground work such as road and rail infrastructure or pipeline or power grid connectivity, before the corridors become a transit and an economic corridor. To capitalise on that a decade and half from now, economic and geopolitical openness, the sowing of diplomatic seeds, the homework to prepare human and other forms of capital and so forth ought to begin over the next five years at the most. Delays mean catching the rally late and unprepared, if not missing at all.
Recall that Pakistan has already lost the opportunity to capitalise on the GCC economic transition. As these economies matured and demanded more service sector workers than hard labourers, Pakistan sat idly while the likes of India, Bangladesh, and Philippines filled that gap. The implication is therefore important that you vote, and that you influence your friends, colleagues and family to vote; and thereafter ensure by unremitting force that the people you voted for deliver for Pakistan’s economic and political development.