The legendary South Punjab province! It’s a tale from Neverland – loosely based on the mythical oppression of people from the south by the rulers in the north. And -as if getting one province wasn’t already hard enough, latest twist has been added to the plot by calls for a separate Bahawalpur province – akin to a division before birth.

First, the more obvious political repercussions of creating three federating units out of one-Punjab. For example, Punjab’s share in the Senate will increase to half of total seats from existing one-fourth.-A legislature designed to neutralize dominance of one region on rest of the federation will instead come to strengthen its influence.. Imagine the reaction by smaller provinces, who already complain of Punjab’s over-bearance in national politics.

But even if we ignore the proposal’s implications for the constitution and federation, let’s first analyse it on its merits. The three districts of Bahawalpur division: the namesake district, Rahim Yar Khan; and Bahawalnagar, constitute Punjab’s most fertile region by agricultural output.

Until last decade, the region was synonymous with country’s cotton belt – mainstay of textile exports. More recently, it has also come to be known for its lucrative high sucrose sugarcane crop. As of 2018, Bahawalpur division leads the province in sugarcane crushing, with 38 percent share in provincial output. This, even as it is home to only half as many milling units as Faisalabad division, albeit those owned by the most influential.

Is there any truth to Bahawalpur’s complaint of historic injustices by the administrations of the province – both of distant past and ones more recent? Specifically, despite its impressive agricultural output, why has the region been at the poorer end of social development indicators?

Unfortunately, causes of the region’s suffering are more rooted in its endogenous socio-political makeup than exploitation by outsiders. An erstwhile princely state during colonial period, the region has been dominated by feudals – who since abolition of One Unit, have also come to dominate its political economy.

Early incidences of land reforms in the province preceded Bahawalpur State’s integration into Punjab proper, whereas land redistribution attempts of 1970s were declared un-Islamic and thus reversed right before implementation during the following martial law. Today, when average farm-holding sizes in some districts of northern and central Punjab has fallen to as low as 2.6 acres, large land holders in Bahawalpur division still rule the day, with average landholding size in RYK at 7.6 acres and 11.8 acres in Cholistan region.

Today, Bahawalpur division is home to nearly 20 percent of Punjab’s large-scale farms, defined as farms of 50 acres or above. Zoom in, and one discovers region’s even more disproportionate share in the ultra-large farm-size category: 150 acres and above. Commanding one-fourth of Punjab’s large-sized farms, the trend tallies even when compared on basis of aggregate farm area.

While the effects of land fragmentation on farm productivity are debatable, redistribution has obvious positive correlation with decline in poverty incidence. Moreover, Simi Kamal of Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund in a conversation with BR Research noted that the feudal region of southern Punjab also has highest incidences of honour killings in the province. By some accounts, the region also has the highest number of landless farmers in all of Punjab.

If national level political parties are truly faithful to the cause of putting an end to disenfranchisement in Bahawalpur division, they should start with fixing it from within. Bringing the region at par with rest of the province also entails redistributing larger landholdings among the landless, just as has been achieved in northern and central Punjab.