Outside of developed world and Middle East, Pakistan has one of the highest per capita consumption of wheat in the world. In fact, if the EU-27 were to be clubbed as one region, Pakistan climbs into the top 25 of the global per capita flour consumers, a testament to our bread-loving palates despite below world-average yield.

Significantly, due to geographical-cultural factors unique to Pakistan, the country was able to leapfrog a major step in dietary evolution. Throughout second half of the last century, most low-income Asian countries relied on rice as their dietary staple, a cheaper source of carbs and calories compared to flour. In early 1990s, as these countries graduated out of poverty - especially in South East Asia - consumption of wheat and flour products increased at the same time as rice consumption plateaued –as trendy bread fashions from the western hemisphere began to trickle down into eastern diets.

This virtuous circle is now showing itself in earnest in the African continent, which had largely missed out on global agricultural revolution of 1960s-70s. As income levels pick up in continent’s LDCs, rice consumption is also on the rice, while developing countries with per capita income over thousand dollars shift towards flour products, in line with Asian counterparts.

Thus, lesson of last hundred years of global dietary trends indicate that as countries grow richer, they shift away from cheaper cereals as staple source of calories. Today, more people in the global north derive a greater share of their calories from food sources such as meat, dairy, nuts, fruits and vegetables, higher in protein and fat content, compared to cereals. In this context, the decline in per capita wheat availability in Pakistan – from a peak of 150 kg touched in the millennium year to just 116kg by FY19 end, may not necessarily be a negative. (Note that as export of Pakistan’s largest cereal crop is heavily regulated, domestic production can serve as a close proxy of availability. This has been highlighted in the latest ban on wheat export, which came in the aftermath of conflicting news about crop destruction from rain which put upward pressure on flour prices).

Unfortunately, as meat and dairy trends show, not only Pakistan’s number of livestock may be fast depleting, production of vegetables, fruits and pulses have shown no sign of quantum jump in yield, suggesting the decline in wheat consumption is driven more by population pressures, and less by changing dietary preferences away from carbs.

In this context, the central bank of Pakistan included a special section on Food Security in its latest quarterly report on state of the economy. The section notes that given current population growth rate, the country needs to improve its wheat crop yield by an estimated 14.5 percent by 2030.

However, the stark reality is that Pakistan has never seen a decade-wise yield jump of even close to double digits, even in the 1960s when dividends of first green revolution more than doubled domestic wheat production. Ever since, growth in output has primarily been driven by increasing acreage, which grew consistently at least until decade ending 2010. While yield improvement remains a noble goal, does Pakistan have any alternatives if that target fails to meet with fruition? While not the staple diet, Pakistan produces 7 million tons of rice annually on average, of which nearly half is geared toward export markets. Compared to per capita rice consumption of 70kg in India, Pakistan’s per capita consumption is a little under 16kg.

Given that both wheat and rice are comparable sources of carb-based calories in grams consumed, coupled with large exportable surplus – Pakistan may soon see a growing shift from wheat to rice to fulfill the bellies of an ever-growing population. The trend will pick up even more steam if the country is able to do little to improve productivity of livestock, dairy and minor crops.

If this suggests that Pakistan’s dietary preferences may be undergoing reverse-evolution diametric to global trends, it is at least in line with a fast-growing population with falling productivity