With growing unpopularity of the Punjab Chief Minister Sardar Usman Buzdar for non-delivery on key Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) pledges for change within the rank and file of the ruling party, President PML-N Shahbaz Sharif is quietly working towards an in-house change in the province.
Senior PML-N lawmakers from Punjab told Business Recorder on condition of anonymity that efforts are under way to lure PTI's disenchanted coalition partners as well as disgruntled PTI members to form the government in the province. This is an achievable target as PML-N with 180 seats is short of only 8 seats in the 372-seat Punjab Assembly to form the government.
The obviously easy way to dislodge the Punjab government is to make an alliance with PML-Q with ten seats. However this may not be under consideration given the scale and depth of personal animosity between the Sharifs and the Chaudharys.
"Nothing is final in politics and nothing is off the table," a senior PML-N leader observed when Business Recorder pointed out the long term animosity between the Sharifs and the Chaudharys.
"Don't forget that Mushahid Hussain jumped ship to keep his senator-ship and the Chaudharys maintain good relations with him," he added. A PTI MPA, who declined to be named, stated "besides what can the Sharifs offer to Pervaiz Elahi other than the provincial assembly's speakership, which he already has?"
A PML-N senior member on condition of anonymity stated that they can offer more provincial cabinet posts and provide facilities if NAB launches an investigation against the Chaudharys.
With the possibility of an in-house change in Punjab government surfacing it is highly unlikely that the PML-N would support the Maulana Fazlur Rehman led-Azadi March to Islamabad followed by dharna (sit-in) by the party.
The PPP in Sindh is visibly in a better position than the PML-N even though the PML-N has 84 seats while PPP has 55 seats in the National Assembly. In Sindh, with a serious governance crisis, the possibility of a federal government-backed forward bloc cannot be ruled out, either, sources revealed.
"In a situation where several lawmakers of a political party are in serious legal trouble, it would not be surprising if they change loyalties in a desperate bid to appease the powers-that-be. Keeping in view the fast unfolding political landscape, anything seems possible in Pakistan," commented an MQM lawmaker, requesting anonymity.
He referred to the creation of a forward bloc in Balochistan Assembly last year where PML-N-led former provincial government had 52 seats in 65-seat provincial assembly compared to only 13 seats of opposition parties. But Chief Minister Sanaullah Zehri from PML-N had to resign to avoid a no-confidence motion moved by the opposition fearing that motion would succeed with the "blessings of hidden hands" as the forward bloc kept growing stronger against him.
"If 13 opposition lawmakers can successfully lobby to have the CM removed in Balochistan, it does not seem to be a problem for 68 opposition legislators to do the same in Sindh," the source commented.
The numerical breakup of the political parties' respective strength in Sindh Assembly suggests that in the 168-member provincial legislature, PPP is the majority party with 99 seats followed by PTI's 30 seats and Muttahida Qaumi Movement's (MQM's) 20 seats. The Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) has 14 seats, Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) 3 seats whereas Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) has only 1 seat. The opposition's alliance comprising PTI, MQM, GDA and TLP in the provincial legislature has 68 seats in total, 17 members short for an ultimate in-house change by simple majority vote to secure the support of at least 85 out of 168 members provincial assembly (MPAs).
The two main opposition parties support for Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazal's (JUI-F's) chief Maulana Fazal-Ur-Rehman's announcement to lead a 'long march' to Islamabad and stage a sit-in on October 27 with the objective to topple PTI-led federal government would therefore not go beyond rhetorical support.
A PML-N delegation led by Ahsan Iqbal held a detailed meeting with Fazl and conveyed to him the message of president PML-N that N-League was not ready to be part of any anti-government move before November. Moreover, the delegation stressed upon Fazl to halt his anti-government plans till then, sources privy to the meeting told Business Recorder.
In what brews more problems for Fazl and his party, PPP has already distanced itself from JUI-F's anti-government campaign. PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who was in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) on Wednesday, was quoted in the media as saying that PPP is against the "tradition of sit-ins." Earlier on Tuesday, both Shahbaz and Bilawal met in Islamabad. Reportedly, both the leaders agreed to convince the JUI-F chief to defer the Azadi March till November on the pretext of seeking more time for "better mass mobilisation."
Copyright Business Recorder, 2019