We have no idea what the Maulana came to Islamabad for and what he went back with. No dearth of theories there, but none that are granulated with good evidence or credible accounts.
Maulana's sense of humour, crafty doublespeak, is emblematic. His crusty punch lines, delivered with that naughty twinkle and a grin that would do a Cheshire cat proud, stay with us. So when he says he has 'shaken the walls of the government' should we take it as a reminder of his joviality - or look for a hidden hand (Nikkay de abba?).
We are in the camp of those who believe the opposition, combined or divided, does not need to shake the walls of the government. The government itself is doing a pretty decent job of it.
Some months ago Atif Mian, the one who got thrown out of the Economic Advisory Council faster than he could join, had theorized how incompetence is more damaging than corruption. Sixteen months of PTI government and he could well say QED (quod erat demonstrandum - it has been demonstrated).
Still, there are the PTI diehards, and there are a very large number of them, who can see no wrong. If they see the government digging the hole deeper they think it is digging for gold. They will continue to live, indeed thrive, on a diet of promise and hope, spiced with a generous dash of vitriol.
But there are also large numbers of those who voted PTI not because they were blinded by Kaptaan's charisma but because they had woken up to the hopelessness of the others. They genuinely wanted change and PTI promised that. They liked what they heard.
It is this cohort, not the hard core devotees but the genuine tabdeeli-wishers, that is disturbed at things not going the way it was promised or they had hoped.
They are still in the game but getting increasingly restless; not because the time it is taking for 'change' to happen, but because the inexperienced team they had gambled on are all over the place. Their patience is wearing thin as they wait for the government to rest the blame game and get on with the business of governance.
It is the shrinkage of the 'soft core' PTI support base that should be worrying the Kaptaan.
Politics is all about having a constituency - and continuing to expand it. Enlarging the constituency is even more important when you are in office. Failure to do that costs you dearly: come election time the incumbency factor snarls that much more.
Neutering the 'other side' is not the same as enlarging your constituency. Your strength lies not in a weakened opposition but in a stronger support base. The powerful backers can protect you but will not risk getting electrocuted if they see the current passing through you to them. In any event, a safety net maketh not a launching pad!
The 'us versus them' politics is bad politics. The law of diminishing political returns (while in office) is infallible: over time 'anti' numbers grow and 'pro' numbers decline. Preaching to the choir, as the Kaptaan is doing, won't get the numbers right. You need to reach out to 'them'; not at the cost of 'us' but by trying to create greater win-win situations. Literature calls it inclusiveness.
The general perception is that the Kaptaan is getting increasingly edgy, if not downright nervous. Despite that, and the talk of a 'failed experiment', we do not think the time has come for him to be 'run out'; and he has enough fight in him to stave off the 'retired hurt' verdict.
We think his testiness is more on account of a realization that those who made the difference, not the diehards but the well-wishers, are getting disenchanted. His repeated meetings with his spokespersons and the economic team, urging them to put out the good news, no matter how tenuous, is his acknowledgement of the balance tilting against him.
Will propaganda work where non-performance hasn't? With the twin city at his back, and the IMF template the only show in town, he is consumed with the economy. In show after TV show government's hired assassins remind us of the current account surplus, a healthy primary balance, the stable exchange rate, and the rising stock market.
That's all good. The public morale needs to be lifted and you should parade the good news. But if you do it clumsily unintended consequences will hound you.
The government should highlight policy initiatives more than the results. Unless you create a clear linkage between specific policy measures and outcomes the numbers you present could be viewed as accidental or ephemeral.
People don't forget, nor let you forget promises - jobs, houses, trees, justice, equality and equity. What if the current account surplus dwindles, the rupee comes under pressure, the stock market plummets, or the revenues fall? Will it be like the huge off-shore oil discovery of which we hear no more? Will the Kaptaan be remembered as the face that launched a thousand U-turns? Will 'strategic retreat' be seen as an alibi for non-performance?
The Kaptaan was dealt a strong hand but he is playing it badly. Parts of his constituency are crumbling.
What he clearly needs to do is eschew confrontationism. He should lead the parliament and not be dismissive of it. He needs political cohesiveness more than the opposition does. He should listen to Bismarck: politics is the art of the possible. There is a lot out there that is attainable.
What is required is decluttering the agenda. You have promised more than you can deliver. Prioritize, achieve, and then move on to the next priorities. You can't pursue all the goals, no matter how noble, at the same time, especially with a weak implementation capacity. That is Management 101.
What is required is leaving financial accountability to the watchdogs. Your job is to hold your people accountable for performance. This requires setting SMART goals for each Ministry, and not setting up task forces. Judge your Ministers on their meeting the targets; not flying the flag on TV shows or public events.
Finally, remember political winds are notoriously fickle. They can dump you with the same alacrity as they lift you up. There is always room at the top.
shabirahmed@yahoo.com