Renewed surge in violence

EDITORIAL: The figures reported by the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) are deeply disturbing. At least 1,415 people were killed and 558 injured in 385 violent incidents during the third quarter of 2026 — an alarming 83 percent rise in violence-linked fatalities.

This followed encouraging declines in violence during the first two quarters of the year, making the reversal all the more concerning despite sustained counter-terrorism operations. The geographical concentration of the violence also calls for serious attention.

Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa together accounted for 98 percent of all fatalities, demonstrating that Pakistan’s security challenges remain heavily concentrated in its western provinces bordering Afghanistan, which continues to provide operating space and sanctuaries to Pakistan-focused militant organisations, particularly the TTP and BLA, enabling them to plan, organise and launch cross-border attacks into Pakistan.

Baluchistan witnessed the highest number of violent incidents, with 186 cases, representing more than 48 percent of the total recorded during the quarter.

KP followed closely with 173 incidents, or nearly 45 percent. The concentration of violence in these two provinces underscores the need for a security strategy that takes account of their distinct political, economic, social and geographical circumstances.

Baluchistan’s situation is particularly alarming. Fatalities there more than tripled from 265 in the second quarter to 829 in the third, an increase of 213 percent. The province alone accounted for nearly 59 percent of the country’s violence-linked deaths and also recorded the highest number of violent incidents. Baluchistan remains a major national security challenge requiring, alongside necessary kinetic action, sustained political, administrative and economic attention.

Meanwhile, the authorities need to avoid measuring success solely by the number of militants eliminated in security operations. Counter-terrorism operations are necessary, but eliminating militants cannot by itself address the underlying drivers of violence.

A sustainable response requires better intelligence, stronger border management, more effective policing, and closer coordination among security institutions.

At the same time, legitimate political grievances, poor governance, economic deprivation and alienation in violence-affected areas must be addressed through credible civilian institutions and genuine engagement with representatives of the Baloch people.

The emergence of the TTP as the deadliest group among those claiming responsibility, alongside attacks attributed to the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) and other organisations, highlights the complexity of the threat. Pakistan is confronting multiple militant networks with differing motivations, structures and operational capacities.

A uniform response is therefore not workable. What is needed is a coherent, long-term national strategy combining robust counter-terrorism measures with effective border management, diplomatic pressure on Kabul, through its few remaining friends and diplomatic interlocutors, to fulfil its obligation to prevent Afghan territory from being used for attacks against Pakistan.

Unless the state addresses both the immediate security threat and the conditions that allow militancy to take root, temporary reductions in violence risk giving way to yet another cycle of escalation and loss.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026