Bank of Korea warns country's chip exports could fall by up to $100 billion if AI spending slows
- The assessment underscores growing anxiety over South Korea's heavy reliance on chips, which account for roughly half of its exports
A slowdown in US tech AI spending could slash South Korea's chip exports by up to $100 billion, significantly impacting its GDP and current account.
- Potential $50B-$100B decline in South Korea's chip exports.
- Impact on South Korea's GDP growth and current account surplus.
- Uncertainty in AI demand and memory chip business cycle.
SEOUL: South Korea’s semiconductor exports could fall by $50 billion to $100 billion compared with earlier forecasts if capital spending on artificial intelligence by major US technology firms slows next year, according to central bank data.
In a written response submitted to lawmaker Ahn Do-geol, the Bank of Korea (BOK) modelled a “pessimistic scenario” to assess the economic fallout if US tech giants curb their aggressive infrastructure outlays.
Under the scenario, a sudden export shortfall would shave approximately 0.4 percentage point off South Korea’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate next year, by driving the country’s current account surplus well below the central bank’s initial projection of $430 billion for 2027.
The scenario assumed a 10% decline in Korean semiconductor unit prices.
The assessment underscores growing anxiety over South Korea’s heavy reliance on chips, which account for roughly half of its exports.
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The report said combined capital expenditure by five major US technology firms, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle, has been growing rapidly, from $40 billion last year to an estimated $80 billion this year, and is projected to reach $110 billion next year.
However, the BOK cautioned that considerable uncertainty remains over the trajectory of AI demand and the broader memory chip business cycle.
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