China October soybean imports fall on high inventories, weak crush margins

BEIJING: China’s soybean imports fell to their lowest level for October since 2023, as high crusher inventories, negative margins and low pork prices dampened buying appetite, analysts said.

China imported 7.35 million metric tons of soybeans in October, down 22.5% from the record 9.48 million tons imported a year earlier and 38% lower than September, customs data showed on Tuesday.

The volume was also well below analysts’ expectations of around 9.5 million tons per month in the fourth quarter.

“In October, South American old-crop supplies were running out while bulk shipments of new-crop US soybeans had yet to begin,” said Liu Jinlu, an agriculture researcher at Beijing-based Guoyan Futures. High inventories at crushers and weak crushing margins also slowed purchases and shipment scheduling, resulting in a sharp decline in arrivals, she added.

A recovery in imports in November and December will depend on China-US trade relations and an improvement in crushing margins, Liu said. Key risks include US weather disruptions, slower export shipments and uncertain South American planting weather.

From January to October, soybean arrivals in the world’s biggest buyer totalled 93.48 million tons, down 2.3% from the same period last year.

China’s private soybean processors face a costly fourth-quarter supply squeeze as inventories tighten in top exporter Brazil and tariffs keep US cargoes largely out of reach.

Analysts said China’s pig herd is expected to contract in the fourth quarter of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027, as Beijing steps up efforts to stabilise the oversupplied market, clouding the outlook for future feed demand.

China’s breeding sow inventory stood at 36.02 million at the end of September, down 10.7% from three months earlier, the country’s statistics bureau said in late October.