South Africa rand softer, bonds flat, CPI could boost yields

23 Jan, 2013

 

Consumer inflation data due out at 0800 GMT is likely to cement the market view that the Reserve Bank will leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday, especially if the data surprises above market expectations of a 5.7 percent year-on-year rise.

 

The rand was at 8.8850 to the dollar at 0700 GMT, slipping 0.34 percent from Tuesday's New York close at 8.8550.

 

Government bonds were little-changed from overnight levels, with the yield on the benchmark note due in 2026 flat at 7.255 percent and that for the 2015 bond adding one basis point to 5.36 percent.

 

"Price action has been pretty poor with some offshore disinvestment, and with the currency lagging so are other asset classes. South Africa is definitely falling behind its emerging market peers right now," Citi bond trader Mark Southworth said.

 

"I'm not sure if we're going to have a real panic sell-off but it does look as if yields can drift a little bit higher today."

 

Foreign investors have been reluctant to buy strongly into local assets this year as Africa's biggest economy grapples with instability in the mining sector after violent strikes last year that hit economic growth.

 

Investors are now nervous that protests in the industrial town of Sasolburg, where residents have burnt vehicles, barricaded streets and looted shops, could signal a new wave of the unrest in townships over poor basic services.

 

"There is still potential for the rand to react negatively to headlines," said Standard Bank trader Warrick Butler, predicting a 8.82-90 range for the currency in Wednesday's session.

Copyright Reuters, 2013

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