US spot natgas slips as moderating temperatures curb demand

03 Apr, 2013

NEW YORK: US spot natural gas prices slid across the nation on Wednesday, as near-term cold weather in consuming regions was expected to moderate late this week, curbing heating demand.

High temperatures in New York City on Thursday were expected to climb about 10 degrees from Wednesday, to the mid-50s Fahrenheit, according to the Weather Channel's weather.com.

The forecaster said highs in Chicago would climb more than 10 degrees to the high-50s F on Thursday.

Gas for Thursday delivery at the nation's benchmark Henry Hub <NG-W-HH> in Louisiana slid 7 cents to average $4 per million British thermal units, after rising 10 cents on Tuesday for gas delivered on Wednesday.

Hub cash prices rose twice last week to $4.08, their highest average price since early September 2011.

Late-winter cold put a dent in inventories, while high nuclear power plant outages kept demand for gas high and underpinned a nearly 16-percent run-up in Henry Hub prices last month.

But with forecasts for moderating weather in the coming days, most traders expect more upside to be limited.

Wednesday's Hub average remained just above the April monthly index of $3.98, and was more than double the year-ago price of $1.94. Cash prices bottomed out last year in late-April at $1.82.

Late deals eased slightly to 9 cents over the front-month May natural gas futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, from deals done late Tuesday at a 10-cent premium.

The front-month futures contract traded late down about 4 cents at $3.93, also below last week's 19-month high of $4.121.

In consuming regions, gas on the Transco pipeline at the New York citygate <NG-NYCZ6>, the day's biggest loser on the moderating forecasts, tumbled nearly $2 to average $5.15, while Chicago gas <NG-CHGC> was 22 cents lower on the day at $4.10.

After the lingering cold early this week in consuming regions, the latest National Weather Service six to 10-day forecast issued on Tuesday again called for above-normal readings for about the eastern half of the nation, with some below-normal readings only expected in parts of the Southwest.

Nuclear outages totaled 22,400 megawatts, or 22 percent of capacity, down from 23,400 MW out on Tuesday and 22,600 MW out a year ago, but up from a five-year average outage rate of 21,600 MW.

INVENTORY DRAW WELL ABOVE EXPECTATIONS

Last week's gas storage report from the US Energy Information Administration showed domestic gas inventories fell the prior week by 95 billion cubic feet, above Reuters poll estimates for an 87 bcf draw.

It was the fifth time in six weeks that the weekly withdrawal was above expectations.

Domestic gas inventories are now at 1.781 trillion cubic feet, nearly 27 percent below last year's record high, but still nearly 4 percent above the five-year average.

Estimates for this week's EIA gas storage report ranged from 65 bcf to 108 bcf, with most analysts expecting data to show a draw of about 91 bcf when it is released early Thursday, a Reuters poll showed.

Stocks rose an adjusted 43 bcf during the same week last year and on average over the past five years have gained 4 bcf that week.

Storage began winter at a record 3.929 tcf, but about 2.15 tcf of gas has been pulled from storage so far this heating season, or 45 percent more than last year at this time.

Stocks, which will likely fall below the five-year average for the first time since September 2011 after Thursday's data, are set to end the heating season near the 1.73 tcf average, or 30 percent below last winter's record-high finish of 2.48 tcf.

A Reuters poll in mid-January showed most analysts expected storage to finish the winter at about 2 tcf.

Baker Hughes data last week showed the gas-directed drilling rig count fell by 29 to a 14-year low of 389.

<Center><b><i>Copyright Reuters, 2013</b></i><br></center>

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