Osama bin Laden, the guy who contributed to - and also hurt - Pakistans economy the most in the last decade, exists no more.
Arguably, without him there might not have been a 9/11, and General Musharrafs regime might not have gained legitimacy in the eyes of the West - and the foreign dollars that propped up Pakistans economy might not have flowed in.
Yet, the man whose body was roughly worth the weight of 471 kilograms of gold (if his bounty amount is converted at current gold prices) played a key role in damaging Pakistans economy.
Based on last available government estimates, direct and indirect costs of the war on terror to Pakistans economy exceeded $43 billion between 2005 and 2009; "as a percent of GDP, the loss increased from 4.0 to 6.6 during this period," according to calculations made by Social Policy Development Centre - a reputed Karachi-based socio-economic think tank.
How Pakistans economy will fare in the aftermath of Osamas killing depends on how the situation develops over the course of weeks, months, and even years.
In the immediate term, there could be a militant backlash as an array of angry offshoot organisations and sidekick militants continue creating mayhem in Pakistans big and small cities. If this happens, the economy would naturally take a hit.
Macquarie Capital, a global financial advisory firm notes that when the big names are taken down, the militant groups tend to weaken. However, the dangerous precedent set by Osama and the likes is that the militant mindset that has become quite pervasive over time in the country.
In the medium-term, however, the future of Pakistans economy depends heavily on Pak-US relations. The Financial Times reports that "the revelation that bin Laden was effectively hiding in plain sight, not in the lawless tribal areas near Afghanistan but close to Islamabad, will also deepen the crisis in Washingtons ties with Pakistan".
However, the US must appreciate the role of Pakistani authorities in bringing the perpetrator down, and in turn it should lead to betterment of relations between the two sides. Its about time the pending US dollars flew into Pakistans kitty along with the much-needed preferential market access for Pakistani exports.
Whether the US will give Pakistan what it needs, is as dicey as the long end of the US-AfPak story. Osamas killing comes two months before the announced commencement of the withdrawal of US combat troops from Afghanistan in July this year, and in a way may give legitimacy to the complete withdrawal due by 2014.
The killing is also expected to silence criticism piled on to the Obama administration over the intended troop withdrawal, which had gained traction after the recent escape of some 200 Talibans from the prison in Qandahar and the shooting of nine US military personnel by an Afghan pilot.
In any case, Osamas killing will be a pretext for Americas departure, regardless of its timing, following which, the million-dollar question would arise over the fate of Pakistans economy.
If the US will start giving Pakistan a cold shoulder, just as it did after the end of Cold War, then Pakistan would have it. If not, even then one can expect the US taxpayers to be generous enough to support Pakistan in the aftermath of the war on terror.
This complex set of possibilities did not have a significant impact on Pakistani markets. By the end of Mondays close, the rupee was little changed and so was the stock market. In international markets, however, this game changing incident pushed commodities (including oil, gold, and silver, lower) and S&P equities higher.
At the time of writing this note, the markets were eagerly awaiting additional statements from Pakistani and US officials - looking for any sort of clue of future foreign policy direction. So investors should avoid taking aggressive positions in either direction until things become clearer.