Budgetary slips

10 Jun, 2016

The tall claims of macroeconomic indicators published in budget documents and economic survey are seen with suspicion by various independent economists and analysts alike. The economic growth rate of 4.7 percent is challenged by an economic think tank by a wide margin. This column will come up with a detailed analysis soon to find out what is the right growth number - 4.7 or 3.1 percent - or perhaps somewhere in the middle.

The tendency to overstate GDP growth and practices of toying around with accounting treatments to meet targets is characteristic of Ishaq Dar's regime. For instance, when this government attempted to announce GDP number on quarterly basis in FY14; it overstated the number at 5 percent while the actual number was close to 3 percent (See: BR Research column, A deeper dive in GDP ocean, December 16, 2013).

In the case of meeting IMF quantitative targets, the usual practice is to window dress at the last moment to meet the targets. Four out of five quantitative targets are usually met by some manipulation and manoeuvring, which in essence defies the very purpose of those targets (For details read BR Research column:

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