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Cement: Great expectations

21 Jun, 2016

May's numbers for cement are out, and they show stellar performance. The sector has registered its highest ever dispatches, recording at 3.6 million tons for May 2016; a 19 percent growth from FY15. Cumulatively, dispatches have reached 35.5 million tons in 11MFY16 against 32 million tons in the same period last year; a surge of 10.6 percent. The sector will likely end the year with historic highs in sales - and continue to grow in FY17 and FY18.

Local dispatches in both the northern and southern blocks have remained solid with a 16.6 percent and 23.7 percent year-on-year growth respectively, in 11MFY16. The northern block has outpaced its own performance, selling 2.5 million tons in May of this year going up from 2 million tons and 1.9 million tons in May of FY15 and FY14.

Exports have rallied against a negative backdrop with a slowdown in cement demand in key markets growing by seven percent between April and May 2016. This slight month-on-month growth is associated to an incremental turnaround in exports to Afghanistan and other countries through sea-routes, but overall, exports have witnessed a cumulative decline of 17.4 percent in year-on-year growth.

India is becoming a tough market given that it's building up local capacities. Exports to India might be restricted in the future with safeguard measures to protect local interests. Meanwhile, the antidumping duty imposed by South Africa in 2015 is still intact. However, cement producers could lend focus to growing markets in the region (Sri Lanka and Nepal) and beyond; Africa and GCC that are worth exploring. Pakistani cement producers are a competitive group and could compete with suppliers from Thailand and Vietnam.

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