The US Department of Agriculture may raise its estimate of the US 2003 soyabean harvest in its final crop estimates on January 12, Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World said.
"This would be bearish in the short term," it said. "But if such an upward revision is not more than 50 million bushels it will not sufficiently change the very tight US (supply) situation."
Oil World said it expects the USDA to report a strong fall in US December 1, 2003, soyabean stocks to 47.8 million tonnes in all positions against 57.5 million tonnes the same time in 2002 and 61.9 million tonnes in 2001.
The background is high US crushings and exports despite the lower US crop. Oil World predicts that US soyabean prices will have to rise in the second part of the season to achieve rationing of strong demand.
High crushing volumes mean US soyaoil and soyameal supplies are not currently tight, it said.
"However the need to substantially curb US crushings in the second half of this season is painting a bullish scenario for US soyaoil and meal," it said.