New York coffee down after back-and-fill session

10 Jan, 2004

CSCE coffee futures finished lower on Thursday in a largely sideways session as traders did some last-minute book squaring ahead of Friday's option expiration, dealers said.
"Some of the specs and option dealers were jockeying positions with the options expiring on Friday.
The funds probably bought more while producers used the bounce to do some selling," said a trader at an importer.
The benchmark March arabica coffee worked lower for a second day, dipping 0.50 cent to close at 68.35 cents a lb, with a 67.50 to 69.95 cents trading range.
"The market closed in the middle of its range and we'll probably see more sideways action on Friday with the February options expiring," said another broker.
On Friday is the last trade day for the February 2004 options. May coffee also fell 0.50 cent to 70.10 cents and the back months-finished 0.40 to 0.55 cent easier.
Estimated volume stalled at 17,458 lots on Thursday, down from the 18,466 lot pace set on Wednesday.
On the fundamental front Brazil's largest coffee co-operative said on Wednesday that output in its area would total 6.5 million 60-kg bags in 2004/05, up 80 percent from last year, due to an upturn in the two-year coffee cycle.
But the crop will be 16.4 percent lower than the 7.7 million bags harvested two years ago in 2002/03, Cooxupe said in an initial estimate.
Brazil, the world's biggest coffee producer, expects total output to rise 26 percent to 35.8 million bags in 2004/05.
"Brazil's oncoming crop should be the real focus of the market and in the next six weeks or so people should be able to see how the crop has developed and adjust their forecasts up or down," said an importer.
In addition, the International Coffee Organisation (ICO) said on Thursday producing member's exports in November 2003 fell to 5.955 million 60-kg bags, compared with 7.214 million in November 2002.
"The ICO numbers are friendly for the market, but I think a lot of traders want to see what is going to come out of Central America in the next few months," said one green coffee buyer.
Chartists pegged support on March at 67.50 cents followed by 67.10 cents with resistance at 68.65 cents.
CSCE is a subsidiary of the New York Board of Trade.

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