Thailand, the world's top rice exporter, aims to boost shipments of the grain to eight million tonnes at higher prices this year as global stocks fall, a leading exporter said on Thursday.
Vichai Sriprasert, head of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, told Reuters that India and China would see their exports slip in 2004 and Vietnam would remain Thailand's closest rival.
"Thai rice exports are expected to be higher than last year. Some key exporting countries are seen exporting less because of a reduced crop and no export subsidies," Vichai said.
"For Thailand to export eight million tonnes in 2004, it is achievable," said Vichai, the owner of the Riceland International trading company.
Last year, Thailand exported a record 7.58 million tonnes of rice, up from seven million in 2002.
Its rice output in 2004 is estimated at 18 million tonnes, with half that for domestic consumption.
The prospect of smaller global stocks and high demand are expected to support prices for most of 2004, Vichai said.
Thailand has only 800,000 tonnes of surplus stocks, down from three million tonnes a year ago, and stocks in China, India and Pakistan, all key exporters, were also falling, he said.
Global surplus stocks are estimated to drop to 84.2 million tonnes in 2004 from 105 million in 2003, Vichai said.
Global trade is estimated at 26 million tonnes in 2004, with key importers including Indonesia and the Philippines, he said.
The world rice trade was 27 million tonnes last year.
EL NINO? "As far as I know, few people are talking about El Nino returning this year. Without El Nino, rice production in importing countries are not expected to be hit," said Vichai.
"Key importers such as Indonesia and the Philippines are expected to continue buying, but not higher than last year."
El Nino, caused by abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the east and central Pacific, is responsible for devastating weather conditions around the globe, including droughts, storms and floods.
India, which shipped 6.9 million tonnes of rice in 2002 and four million tonnes in 2003, was likely to export less this year, Vichai said.
"India's state subsidies for rice exports are not expected to be resumed in 2004, and that will discourage exporters from exporting," he said.
Last August, the Indian government stopped fresh allocations of rice to exporters due to low stocks and a shortage of rail wagons for internal transport.
New Delhi said the suspension was temporary. However, the government is yet to decide whether to resume allocations.
India has emerged as a major international supplier in recent years, pushing aside Vietnam as the world's number two rice exporter in 2002.
China would continue to be a key exporter, but a reduced growing area would mean less for export, Vichai said.