London coffee falls on speculative selling

05 Feb, 2004

London coffee futures slipped on Wednesday, pressured by speculative selling and a weaker New York market, dealers said.
Prices were under broad pressure from recent buyers who decided to bank gains in the absence of firm bidders ready to underpin the market at recent highs, although there was roaster support at the bottom of the range.
Structural trading was active as funds started to roll forward positions with the delivery period approaching in New York.
"There is some spec selling in the market. A lot of the activity in London for the past few days has been spec driven. But especially today after yesterday's steady market, specs are trying to see if they can push it lower and maybe uncover some more funds stops," a dealer said.
"Today we have seen some roaster buying as well limiting that downside and I am sure there is active roaster buying around."
Benchmark March closed $19 lower at $758 a tonne on 5,083 lots out of total turnover of 10,500 lots. It moved in a $771-$752 range.
Second month May lost $17 to $775 on 3,994 lots.
March/May remained broadly flat around a $17 discount.
Dealers said key support was at $739, with initial support at $750. A break back through $800 was needed to confirm a re-test of $837.
The market could extend its downward correction after closing the gap left in the charts with the shift in the front month earlier this week, but a push to the upside was still possible.
Dealers monitored the next move from the funds, which accumulated a large long position in the last Commitment of Traders report and should now be between 15,000 and 21,000 lots long. They also kept track of stocks to assess market direction in the longer term.
Traders and analysts said the fall in world coffee stocks over the past few months has supported rallies in the New York and London markets but would not be enough to lift prices far from historic lows.
Stocks in the United States have fallen since the summer and traders said European stocks should also be lower, with a premium for the recently expired London spot month attracting a shift towards certified warehouses.

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