Soya lower after setting 15-1/2-year high

04 Mar, 2004

Chicago Board of Trade soyabean futures ended sharply lower on Tuesday on rumours China had cancelled soyaoil purchases and that soyaoil could be imported into the United States, reversing rally that took the market to new 15-1/2 year highs, traders said.
"There's talk that China may have cancelled four or five cargoes of South American soyaoil, and that two cargoes of South American soyaoil may be brought into the US," one CBOT floor trader said.
CBOT soyabeans settled down 31-1/4 cents to up 2-1/2 cents, with March down 31-1/4 cents at $9.31 after hitting a 15-1/2 year high of $9.79-1/2.
May ended down 29 cents at $9.28-1/2 after trading in a 50-cent range during the session. Commodity funds were net sellers after buying more than 2,000 lots, brokers said.
Commercials were also net sellers, they noted. CBOT soyameal ended down $4.80 per ton to up 20 cents, with March down $3.90 at $280.00 and may down $4.80 at $281.30.
March set 6-1/2-year top of $289.30, while cash soyameal basis offers were steady on Tuesday. CBOT soyaoil settled down 0.49 cent to 1.62 cents, with March soyaoil down 1.22 cents at 33.35 cents, after hitting a new 19-1/2-year top of 35.03.
May end down 1.52 cents at 33.03. Rival Malaysian palm oil ended lower, traders noted.
The late, sharp break followed gains made on talk that Brazil's soyabean production could lag both the Brazilian government's estimate of 57.66 million tonnes and the US Department of Agriculture's forecast of 61 million tonnes.
In particular, traders noted that Sparks Cos., a key US grain analyst, last on Friday reduced its Brazilian soyabean estimate to 55.75 million tonnes.
Rumours also flew on Tuesday that private grain firms were beginning to issue even lower estimates, but those reports were denied.
Dry weather across Argentina's soya belt and Brazil's southern crop belt, and wet weather and crop diseases in Brazil's northern farmland, have cut yields.
The lowered crop production estimates come at a time when the US soya supply is expected to fall to 27-year low, traders noted.
Cash soyabean basis markets were steady to firm across the US Midwest on Tuesday, dealers said.
Overnight soya export business was quiet. Deliveries against March soyabeans on Tuesday totalled 218 lots, with a customer of Refco Inc stopping 92 lots.
Registrations of soya with the CBOT late on Monday totalled 342 lots, unchanged from the previous day. Deliveries on the March soyameal contract totalled 262 lots, with a Rand Financial customer stopping 141 lots.
Registrations of soyameal with the CBOT late on Monday totalled 414 lots, down from 513 on Friday. Deliveries on the March soyaoil contract totalled 143 lots, with scattered stopping. Registrations of soyaoil with the CBOT late on Monday totalled 5,132 lots, unchanged from Friday. The CBOT May soyabean crush margin ended up 1.72 cents at 53.69 cents per bushel.

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