The Russian government may see the necessity of introducing additional grain export curbs as shipments continue in spite of a 25 euro per tonne duty set on wheat and rye from the middle of January to May.
The government may impose an export duty on flour and barley exports similar to the wheat and rye duty.
It may also extend the period of the wheat and rye duty over May 1. Russia's wheat exports dropped to 175,500 tonnes in January from 445,100 tonnes in December.
The drop in wheat exports reflected reduced domestic supplies coupled with historical high prices.
The introduction of the export duty on wheat and rye had also contributed to the cut in wheat shipments, particularly to countries outside the Commonwealth of Independent States of the former Soviet Union.
Some wheat continued to be delivered chiefly to Ukraine and the Transcaucasus states.
Despite the introduction of the export duty, high prices in these countries make Russian and Kazakh shipments rather competitive against deliveries from other countries mostly due to abnormally high ocean freight rates.
The total of Russia's exports in July-January amounted to 3.7 million tonnes, compared with 9.05 million tonnes over the same period of last season.
SovEcon's forecast of Russia's total wheat exports in 2003/04 (including flour) remains practically unchanged at 4.0-4.1 million tonnes, well down on last season, but very close to the 2001/02 level of 4.2 million tonnes.