Chinese bet on yuan rise; central bank stands firm

22 Mar, 2004

Many Chinese expect a revaluation of their much-debated currency any day, but it is precisely because of those expectations that the central bank might not do anything at all - for now.
Chinese have traditionally preferred US dollars to the yuan, or renminbi, but interest in the dollar has waned amid speculation of a yuan revaluation to appease foreign trading partners, most notably the United States.
Beijing accountant Alice Zhang changed all her $3,000 savings into yuan earlier this month, joining growing ranks of a newly rich public expecting a re-valued and stronger yuan.
"Many people are talking about a yuan appreciation," 33-year-old Zhang told Reuters. "And the interest rates on dollar savings are too low." It is precisely people like her who prompted China's forex chief to wage a media campaign warning speculators they would pay "huge prices" if they saw a yuan appreciation as a sure bet.
Recent data show Zhang has not been alone in rushing to cash out of dollars.
China's personal foreign exchange savings fell to $83.2 billion at the end of February from $85.3 billion a month earlier, the eighth straight monthly decline.
Beijing has repeatedly parried foreign pressure to re-value, but at the same time has pledged to make the yuan more flexible - and yet keep it basically stable.
A government economist, who declined to be named, said the reform could start when policy makers deemed revaluation talk had eased, but China needed to deregulate the foreign exchange markets and reduce capital curbs first.
The yuan strengthened from 8.7 to the dollar in 1994 to 8.3 in 1996 under its "managed float", which China argues was necessary to dampen currency volatility during the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis.

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