Asian currencies keep low profile as yen rallies

27 Mar, 2004

Asian currencies kept a low profile on Friday, ending mostly flat despite solid gains in the yen and a rally in technology shares as much of the region remained affected by political uncertainty.
Regionals largely followed the ebb and flow of the yen, but not the magnitude of its moves, rising early before paring their gains to be square or negative and then strengthening as Europe took the yen back through 106 per dollar to five-week highs.
Dealers said the reticence of Asian currencies, which mostly remained in ranges set earlier this week, reflected wariness of central banks and some confusion about moves in major currencies.
The Japanese fiscal year-end next Wednesday and the release of major data next week, including US employment figures and Japan's tankan survey, added to the caution.
While the yen has strengthened against the dollar this week, the dollar has gained against the euro and high-yielding currencies such as sterling and the Australian and New Zealand dollars amid speculation of a rate cut by the European Central Bank and some other doubts about the strength of the global economy.
"Asia remains probably the most vulnerable to perceptions of global slowdown, as indeed worries about political risks, but this should at best be a brief interruption to the Asian revaluation story, not the end," Bank of America analysts said in a report.
The Singapore dollar was the strongest regional currency, rising almost 0.2 percent against the dollar, but it stayed clear of the one-month high it hit earlier this week.
The Thai baht, which has been weakening since mid-February, found it difficult to push back through 39.50 per dollar and settled around 39.55.
Politics remained a factor in many regional markets, overshadowing the strong gains in US technology stocks.
The Indonesian rupiah has been pressured ahead of parliamentary elections on April 5, and the Philippine peso remains at record lows amid campaigning for the presidential elections in May.
The Taiwan dollar ended basically flat, despite the yen gains, and the TAIEX share index was unable to hold its opening gains of more than one percent as the election dispute saw the index end down 0.39 percent.
Taiwan's central bank left interest rates steady at Friday's policy meeting, as expected, and said it was ready to maintain exchange rate stability if there was undue volatility.
The Taiwan central bank has more than $200 billion of foreign exchange reserves, giving the market confidence it can keep the Taiwan dollar orderly while the political drama plays out.
The Indonesian rupiah traded towards 8,650 per dollar, its weakest since mid-March when it was at seven-month lows, on selling by Japanese investors, dealers said. Worries the central bank might buy above 8,650 gave the rupiah a floor ahead of the April 5 polls.

Read Comments