Dollar sheds losses after strong ISM data

03 Apr, 2004

The dollar shed most of its losses against the euro on Thursday after a US manufacturing index showed stronger than expected growth in March, a hopeful sign for economic recovery.
US factories were busier than forecast and manufacturers more willing to hire, the report showed, a sign that so-far low US jobs growth could improve in the weeks ahead.
"The ISM data was better than anticipated and so (the euro) drifted down," said John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange at ING Capital Markets in New York.
"The number was mildly positive, and all it did was cut some of the euro longs but we are not going to go too far in either direction because we obviously have a big employment report tomorrow. So we are going to stay around $1.2300," McCarthy said.
The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to 62.5 from February's 61.4, still firmly above a reading of 50 which signifies expansion. Economists had predicted the index would slip to 60.0.
By late morning in New York, the euro had shed most of its earlier gains against the dollar to trade at $1.2339, a small gain. The euro hit a session high at $1.2389 earlier after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at 2.0 percent, as expected.
The dollar declined against the euro after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the bank was in no hurry to cut rates. Euro-denominated asset yields remain richer than those on the dollar and inspired investors to buy euros.
Trichet said ECB monetary policy stance remains in line with maintenance of price stability and that there is more than enough liquidity in the Euro zone for inflation-free growth.
The dollar had a muted reaction to a small rise in US weekly jobless claims and a smaller than expected increase in February's Producer Price Index.
"The PPI coming in on the low side supports the Fed's patience on inflation. That in general shows bad news for the dollar going forward because it is hard to see what the urgency is to tighten rates in the US," said Sean Callow, currency strategist at IDEAglobal, a Wall Street research firm.
Investors were seen holding fire ahead of Friday's crucial March US employment report for signs the economy was adding jobs at a more robust rate. Economists forecast an increase of 103,000 jobs, with the jobless rate steady at 5.6 percent.
The ISM's employment component gave some positive indications for the future and possibly for the dollar. "The employment index also increased which means that this sector is creating jobs after a difficult time. The knee-jerk reaction on the dollar was therefore warranted," David Durrant, chief currency strategist at Bank Julius Baer in New York.
The dollar was down 0.5 percent against the yen at 103.72 yen, compared with four-year lows set on Wednesday of 103.38 yen. The euro was down 0.2 percent against the broadly strong yen at 128.04 yen, compared with four-month lows set on Wednesday of 126.60.

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